Wednesday, November 01, 2006

527 Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight et Al

How do you mess up a commercial that has the message that a return to Democrat control risks a return to the bad old days of corruption? How do you mess up a commercial on that obviously valid point so badly that TV stations make the decision that the ad is inaccurate and pull it? I mean, you were PAYING these people, and they still refused to run it. And how do you run an ad that selectively quotes John Brummett in such a deceptive way that even I of all people, get indignant on Brummett's behalf?

Not that Brummett isn't being a hypocrite when he suddenly defends Beebe's innocence after making comments for years that implied his guilt. There were plenty of good Brummett quotes they could have used that made the same point, but they had to go twist one in such a way as to make me say that even Brummett deserves to be quoted fairly.

The 527 is blowing it. There is a case to be made for divided government as a defense against corruption. Governor Mike Huckabee understands how to make that case as he did in this Sanders column. Beebe already has money, he does not need corruption to get it, but what he wants is power, and the evidence is there that he turned a blind eye to corruption in others in order to get what he wanted.

(continued- click WEDNESDAY below and scroll down for rest of article)


Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

The Democrats are doing with party funds what the Republicans seem to think only this outside group (the 527 group Coalition for Arkansas' Future) can do. Why is it that the Democratic party can run "issue advocacy" ads that are really campaign spots for their guys but the GOP has to rely on an outside group? There is no accountablity or quality control of message in that set-up.

Not that there haven't been quality-control issues outside of the 527. There have been. The GOP has had some serious misfires in these closing days. The ad with the children (not done by the 527, but by the Hutchinson campaign) was a mistake. All it did was call names without giving any evidence to support those claims. You can't use kids to name-call an individual like that. The ad on which that ad was based name-called STEREOTYPES, not individuals.

I realize that the Zogby poll that has shown the race Beebe +3 for a long time has flipped and now shows Asa +3. I am suspicious of that poll result because I don't see the catalyst. Beebe has raised more money- which was a surprise to me. The Republicans have had some negative efforts blow up on them. The only thing going right for them is that Mike Huckabee is jumping in with both feet and properly making the case for divided government.

OK, one more thing is going right for them. Dustin McDaniel's mouth. Specifically, his advocacy of gay "civil unions" which are marriage in all but name. Gunner DeLay is making hay on that one, and I believe the poll results that say he is closing the gap in that race. Still, my gut tells me that Asa is not three points ahead. I think it is more likely he is three or four points behind Mike Beebe. That is by no means an unbridgable gap, but the Republicans cannot afford any more major mistakes. The Turnout machine has to be as well-oiled as they think it is.

8:11 AM, November 01, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well if you think the Zogby poll is wrong then show us how like you have done to all the polls showing Holt down. You can't just say it is not right with out giving reasons

9:02 AM, November 01, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

I defended not just Holt, but every Republican on those other polls, including Asa. And I gave reasons because those were often larger polls with smaller margin's of error and they were giving results that were unreasonable even considering the margin of error. They skewed in favor of the Democrats for specific reasons.

I am not attacking the methodology of the poll. I am saying that this result could be an "outlier". The poll has a + or - 4.3% margin. If it shows Asa up by 3, then it could be Asa down 5.6 and still be right. The other polls in this series showed Asa down by 3. So why isn't he still?

I just don't see what EVENT triggered the six point swing. If anything, recent miscues should have swung it the Democrat's way a point or two. If this is anything but a polling anamolly, I guess it would have to be Huckabee's doing. Do YOU have any other ideas as to why Asa got a six point swing in this poll from two weeks ago?

Bear in mind that if the GOP does a better job of turnout, they could be down by 3 in a poll that calls people in their homes and asks them but still win among those who actually got to the polls and voted. In other words, down by three among likely voters in their living rooms but up by 1 among the subset of that group that actually votes.

10:29 AM, November 01, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It very well could be the Governor. He was reelected with 53% of the vote. He is well like and he had a very good point with a divided government. I would argue that the Governor’s ad is making the slight difference and that Asa's camp has held this in reserve to be used at the last minuet for this very reason. Or it could be that the undecideds are coming around to making up there mind and the soft Beebe voters are falling off. But I am more inclined to say it’s the Governor and the smooth ads by Hutchinson.

8:39 PM, November 01, 2006  
Blogger rob_star said...

You are right, Mark, this 527 is run by a bunch of morons and they completely screwed this thing up. Better collusion next time might help. Not to worry though, there will be plenty of Republican consulting jobs to choose from starting in mid-November and a smart guy like yourself could easily take advantage of all the "openings." I can't wait for the blood bath to begin. It makes me wonder if some of these people will ever find solid employment in the political world after such mishandled and mangled campaigns.

7:55 AM, November 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How is pointing out the truth about Beebe's record a bad ad? Your are just irritated that your party has nominated the wrong guy and that your hold on the media has been checked by the GOP ads, direct mail, and the 72 hour program. Our party's mistakes have shown. It took an arrogant young governor to botch the last race and the democrat being indicted for the GOP to win the second time, but this time with out and arrogant/indicted candidate you still can't win handedly. And Sen. Baker and Reed have done a great job. It is Willets who should worry.

8:44 AM, November 02, 2006  
Blogger Razorbacktruth said...

The most interesting thing is that the group is almost exclusively funded by the Republican Governors Association. You'd think with all that national money, the group would at least have enough sense to know to add an elipse to that Brummett quote. There's no accounting for stupidity I guess.

9:37 PM, November 02, 2006  

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