Thursday, January 03, 2008

Congratulations To Team Huckabee

IOWA GOP Primary Results with 78% reporting:

Huckabee 31,508 ---- 34%

Romney 23,682 ---- 25%

McCain 12,520 ---- 14%

Thompson 12,484 ---- 13%

Paul 9,132 --- 10%

Giuliani 3,321 --- 4%

Hunter 395 -- 0%

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton finishes 3rd behind Barak Obama and John Edwards!

On to Wyoming.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Rick said...

Mark,

This thing is wide open. If McCain wins N.H. and Romney wins Michigan, S.C. is wide open, then comes Florida where Rudy has put his hopes. We could be split with anyone being in a position to win going into super Tuesday on Feb. 5th.
What are your thoughts?

6:04 AM, January 04, 2008  
Anonymous c.b. said...

I have a ard time imagining Romney winning Michigan after losing both Iowa And New Hampshire, which I think will happen. Recent pre-Iowa polls were already showing him behind McCain & this will only serve to damage him more. Huckabee is the only candidate in recent polls to top Romney at one point in Michigan which looks good for him. So, if Romney is down for the count (Thompson goes without saying), Hukabee will be much more attractive in South Carolina than McCain.

You could take it one step further and imagine Huck going into Florida(whose polls have also been kind to him) 3 for 4 and fresh out of S.C.
At this point he has the most plausible "scenario".

BUT.... if these first four all all split up then we may be back to Rudyville. Unless he loses Florida, if that happens he's......outathere!

7:53 AM, January 04, 2008  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

I agree wide open. I think Rudy will hang on through Super Tuesday regardless of what happens in Florida but the X factor is Thompson. He moved a few hundred ahead of McCain in Iowa, enough to likely keep him in the race for now. He will drop out if he fails to win in S.C., if not before. The question then becomes who his supporters back. In the South it won't be McCain (ironic since he and McCain have virtually identical senate records, and McCain is the more authentic military conservative.

In Arkansas especially, the Thompson vote becomes critical, because it is the conservative anti-Huckabee vote. Where will they go?

8:19 AM, January 04, 2008  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

It is unlikely that Huckabee is going to beat Romney in Michigan because (among other reasons) the bump from Iowa will be attenuated by a poor showing in NH Tuesday. Pat Robertson won Iowa, but that did not help in NH.

8:23 AM, January 04, 2008  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

skuse me, Robertson beat Bush in Iowa. Near home-boy Bob Dole won that one in 88.

8:33 AM, January 04, 2008  

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