Sunday, February 10, 2008

Hillary Shut Out, Huckabee Strong in Latest Round

Washington State- Too Close to Call with virtual three-way tie.

Ron Paul Washington State Coordinator Mary McMahan Moore (no relation) has issued a statement claiming that Ron Paul has won the most delegates in Washington State. The media is reporting the results of the straw poll, but what actually matters is who the people actually elected as precinct delegates support. The convention will be held at the end of the month to decide who is going to the RNC National Convention

Barak Obama shut out Hillary Clinton with double-digit wins in four states today. Due to their uniform and straightforward proportional delegate allocation system, we can say that Obama is up 69-40 in delegates from yesterday, plus a couple more from the Virgin Islands. What is not straightforward in the Democrat's plan is that about 30% of the vote comes from "super-delegates" and many claim that Hillary has stacked them. The big question is, will they dare to hand the nomination to Hillary even if Obama beats here in elected delegates? Will she be "selected, not elected"?

The Republican side is much more complicated. Too complicated, it seems, for the MSM to report accurately. For one thing, each state determines how its delegates are allocated. One thing comes out clear, Republicans are NOT rallying to John McCain even though the media has taken to calling him the "presumptive nominee". He MAY have won in Washington state. He got smashed in Kansas and beaten in Louisiana.

Mike Huckabee used his evangelical turnout machine to garner a decisive win in Kansas and grab all 36 delegates at stake.

Louisiana (44 up for grabs) is more complicated. They had a caucus on the 2nd which determined who their state convention delegates would be. Ron Paul's forces were better prepared than any other campaign, so the state GOP stepped in, apparently violating their own rules in the process. A judge will have to sort it out, and do so before Feb. 16th or no one will know who the delegates are supposed to be. If anyone had gotten more than 50% in Louisiana yesterday, then they would have been guaranteed at least 20 of the 44 delegates. Seeing as how no one did, the state delegates elected from the prior caucus will decide the identity of all 44 delegates. John McCain will do well there if the shennanigans are allowed to stand. If they are NOT allowed to stand then I look for Paul and Huckabee forces to make a delegate deal like they did in Maine in an effort to block McCain. Maybe they will split the delegates.

Washington state has been incorrectly declared a "win" for McCain with 87% of the vote counted. He only has 26% of the vote, to 24% for Huckabee and 21% for Paul. The reasoning for giving it to McCain is that the last 13% of the vote is from a more liberal area of the state which might indicate support for McCain. But it may be libertarian part that voted. For example our sources tell us that Ron Paul won Spokane big with at least 45% of the vote. If Paul has the lion's share of the remaining uncounted vote then Washington state would essentially be a three-way tie, hardly good news for the "presumptive nominee" John McCain. It appears all Republicans are looking for someone else to back. In strong evangelical areas like the South and Great Plains, its Huckabee. But in the West and more libertarian areas they will even back Paul. ANYBODY but the MSM's "presumptive nominee" John McCain.


Anonymous c.b. said...

Great analysis, Mark.

Thanks for the info on LA. That clears up a lot.

7:44 AM, February 10, 2008  

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