Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Great Guacamole, in a Fair Poll, Ron Paul May Be Winning This Thing

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I am trying very hard not to get too caught up in Presidential politics. I want to focus on state and local issues. Still, I am amazed to see Ron Paul catch on the way he has, over the loud shouts of "He can't win" from establishment leaning Republicans.

I am not talking about the recent poll which showed him trailing Resident Obama by only a single point, well within the margin. I have always figured that the "bomb half the world on credit till the credit runs dry" faction of the Republican party would be his biggest obstacle. That is, I always assumed he could win the general election simply because of the way he slices into Obama's base of young voters, libertarians, and peace activists. The only thing keeping Paul a guy "who can't win" is the faction of the Republican party who will do everything in their power to keep him from winning.

Instead I am talking about this very recent Gallup poll. Sure, it shows him in 3rd place with 10%, behind Romney with 17 and Palin with 12. But what shocked me was their well-concealed polling data! I got a look at it, now I can't find it. Let me tell you what I saw though: No one in the 18-34 age group was polled, nor was anyone in the 35-44 age demographic polled! The poll was all older voters! Everyone knows that Paul does well among young voters, yet he still finished 3rd in a poll that does not include them. They divided the results by "under 50" responses and "over 50" responses. Romney did well in the under 50 group, but the biggest difference in under/over 50 support was found in Ron Paul's numbers. He was 16% in the under 50 group (which again contained no one under 45) vs. only 6% in the over 50 voters.

This is increasingly turning into a three way race. Romney, the establishment moderate with liberal Republicans and Mormons behind him, Paul, with his "leave me alone government" coalition, and a third group which I will call "belligerent older voters". Palin and Cain are splitting their support.

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