Super Tuesday Open Thread
Purple: All parties. Red: GOP Only Blue: Dem only.
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An open thread to record my, and your, observations on Super Tuesday, everything from the turnout in your local area (mine was 149 Republican voters verses 148 Democratic voters in a locale that is normally 3-1 Republican) to weather. A storm has since blown in and Benton county is now having terrible weather.
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Tuesday, February 05, 2008
19 Comments:
The corporate media presstitutes are erroneously reporting that Mike Huckabee won all 18 delegates in West Virginia. Local media and Ron Paul sources are reporting that Huckabee had to promise three of those delegates to Ron Paul in order to secure the victory.
What happened is that Mitt Romney almost took the thing in the first round with 41% of the vote. McCain instructed his supporters to vote for Huckabee in the second round in order to deny Romney the win. But they still did not have enough. The difference was the Paul supporters- and they were only willing to vote Huckabee if he promised them delegates in return.
Ted Sporer, the Iowa political guru who hosts "The Real Sporer" blog has obtained access to alleged exit polls. Those polls are favorable to Huckabee and not so good to McCain. If they bear out, McCain could end the night gaining LESS than 500 delegates. That would leave him well short of the 1,191 he needs with only 17 states to go and all of his best states behind him.
The leaker indicated that Romney would have over 250 delegates, and Huckabee over 200.
If this plays out, it looks like a brokered convention is in the works.
Mark,
Is Paul in this til the convention or because of his poor showing thus far, will he be dropping out?
He didn't do as well as I expected in Arkansas and he hasn't broken out of single digits in most states. He will have less than 10 delegates tomorrow so I see no need to continue.
Well, Where are all the smart people who parroted Romney about Huckabee taking his votes? I guess it was the other way around.
Not to mention the latest USA/Gallup poll that asked Huck's supporters whether they would swing to McCain or Romney in his absence. They brake 64% to 28% for McCain.
I seriously hope that when Romney sits down with his advisors tomorrow(as it's reported he will) that they give him some sound advice, namely that he should save what's left of his fortune & reputatiobn and go home to Massachusetts... or Michigan... or Utah.. or one of his "home" states that he carried.
The Huck has done better than expected but he has gotten about all the delegates he will get. Huckabee needs to drop out.
This is moving into states in the northwest where Romney will do better than Huck. It looks like McCain will wrap this up in March. The question is who will be his running mate.
Alas Rick, O ye of little faith.
What about LA, KY, MS, TX, VA, KS, NC, IN, WS?
What about his new momentum coming out of this?
What about his supporters no longer being suppressed by the media's "2 person race" drumbeat?
And finally, What if Romney decides to throw in the towel, & most of those delegates go to Huck?
There are 900 delegates left for the taking, Romney has around 200. He would have to win every thing else left and he knows that ain't gonna happen. He also knows that Huck ain't gonna get out. He also knows that neither Huck nor McCain will be inclined to team up with him & will likely leave him out in the cold. So he is just throwing good money after bad......
Not likely? Stranger things have happened.
McCain's best states are behind him and he needs over 300 more delegates to sew it up. That would just be his "share" in a three-way race. Paul will carve a little off that too. It could well be a brokered convention, so there is no need for anyone to quit.
Here is what the Paul folks are saying.....
According to campaign projections, a minimum of 24 delegates were won in yesterday’s contests. When added to projected delegates coming from strong showings in Iowa (4), Nevada (8), Louisiana (3) and Maine (3), that brings the total delegate count to 42 delegates or more.
“Our goal has always been to walk into the national GOP convention with as many delegates as possible,” said Ron Paul 2008 campaign manager Lew Moore. “The number of delegates we won yesterday could very well be the difference in a Convention where no one has a first-ballot majority. With Dr. Paul’s home state of Texas coming up, we feel we can enter the convention with a substantial number of delegates.”
In an agreement first reported by West Virginia television station WSAZ, three Ron Paul delegates were secured through an agreement with the Mike Huckabee campaign at the West Virginia state convention early Tuesday. Ron Paul delegates to the state convention swung their sizable support to Huckabee – putting Huckabee over the top – in exchange for the delegates.
According to campaign projections from last night’s results at least 3 delegates were won in Alaska, 5 delegates were won in North Dakota, 9 delegates were won in Minnesota, and 4 delegates were won in Colorado.
Additionally the results of the Louisiana Caucus may still change in favor of Ron Paul, where an ongoing legal challenge may result in most of that state’s delegates going towards Ron Paul after state GOP officials violated their own rules to improperly put delegates from other campaigns on the ballots.
Scanning both the official and fan sites, I don't see a lot of negative talk there. They are still spoiling for a fight and madder than ever. The chances he will drop out now are nil.
If McCain wants this, he is going to have to do it the hard way. Huck wants to stay in. Romney will likely stay in. The Revolutionaries are not going to be psyched out. They will go after it even if the other two drop out. It is about the message as much as getting the nomination for a man.
Republicans tend to get behind the frontrunner at this stage in the race. I am predicting this will be the case again this year and McCain will be the Republican nominee.
If Huck passes Romney with delegates in the next couple weeks, Romney will leave the race. He is a smart business man and won't throw money away when he doesn't have a prayer.
The repubs have the same problem this election cycle that the Dems had in '04, people aren't going to the polls. This election cycle will go to the Dems. So who do you prefer, Clinton or Obama?
Well, well,.. my humility prevents me from saying "I told you so".
Although I do say, good riddance to the biggest fraud perpetrated on conservatives in recent history.
The question now is, What happens? Will most of his delegates go to Huck & give him a shot in the arm or will this just solidify McCain as the "inevitable one"?
Interesting that Romney only suspended his campaign versus formally ending it, ostensibly so he can continue to "control" his delegates. The question is WHY? Is this (eerie music) a backroom deal(wink, wink) to deny Huck a chance to get a boost in return for a VP slot.... so when the ticket goes down in flames he is the front-runner in 2012???
Personally I hope we never hear from Romney again.
c.b.,
You nailed it. Everything I read is saying McCain did a great job speaking at C-PAC today. Take that with endorsements from Brownback and Allen. I think there is no doubt McCain has this in the bag.
Now the question is VP. I don't see any big advantage Huck gives McCain. McCain needs to pull from a state like Ohio or Florida.
Mark,
There is no way this is going to a brokered convention. I watched Karl Rove run the numbers tonight and for Huck to win he has to win 83% of the remaining delegates. Paul would need a miracle larger than we have ever seen on this earth to win. Thats not going to happen. McCain is the nominee and will likely be facing Clinton in November.
Rick,
Rove is deceptively answering the wrong question as part of the media's ongoing effort to push McCain on us.
The question Rove SHOULD be answering if he were actually trying to inform you is "What percentage of remaining delegates must McCain WIN to avoid a brokered convention." NOT "What percentage of delegates must HUCKABEE win to avoid a brokered convention.
Huckabee must win 83% to win without a brokered convention. Almost impossible. McCain must get at least 36% to win without a brokered convention. The only reason he is leading now is that he won in big liberal winner-take-all states like NY, NJ, AZ, and a very narrow win with 37% in Missouri that got him all that state's delegates. Those states gave him 100% of their delegates when he had only 40% of the actual vote. 60% of the voters in those states votes AGAINST him, yet he got 100% of their delegates.
His other big victory was in California, where it was WTA by congress district. Again, a very big and liberal state which STILL gave him a higher percentage of delegates than he got in the vote.
Rush won't support him. Dobson won't support him. The majority of republican voters cannot stand him, and he must get over 36% of the delegates even though his average vote has been less than that and all of his best states are behind him.
Maybe he will do this, and maybe he won't, but it is not as inevitable as the media makes it sound. They did not give up when things were down in Valley Forge and I won't now. Paul could win Washington State Caucus this Tuesday. He has a ton of support there, and always does better in a caucus than in a primary because the participants are much better educated on the issues.
Mark,
I think McCain will easily win this because Republicans tend to rally around the top candidate at this point in primaries. I will be very suprised if he doesn't have this wraped up in a couple weeks.
Is Huck going to be on the ticket?
Mark,
Rush WILL support him. So will Ann Coulter and Laura Ingraham. Watch what I am saying. They will spend so much time beating up on Huckabee, they won't have to publicly endorse him. But the results and the intent will be obvious. Rush Limbaugh is just one more of the sellouts in the Republican crowd.
James Dobson's only reason for sucking up to Huckabee now it that Huckabee leads a large portion of the Christian Right now. It is cutting into his donations, drastically. If you think Dobson's move is motivated by personal conviction rather than power, then please practice up on your "baaaaaaa baaaaaa". Because you are no different than the rest of the sheeple.
And I say that as a supporter of the guy he just endorsed. Go Mike Huckabee!
The same goes for the NRA and the NRLC. The only thing the Republican establishes hates worse than John McCain is any Christian gaining the top of the ticket.
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