Is Leaked Poll for Real?
By Mark Moore (click "comments" below for article).
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Friday, September 16, 2005
Friday, September 16, 2005
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35 Comments:
There is a purported poll making the rounds. It was leaked to certain media outlets around the state. I almost hate to publish it because polls at this stage don't mean much, even if they are real. Since The Hachet (Lucas Roebuck of RobuckReport) has reported it, we might as well open it up for comments though.
With all those grains of salt lined up........
Governor:
Beebe 42%
Hutchinson 35%
Lendall 2%
Bryan <1%.
Undecided 20%
Democrat Lt. Governor's race
Wooldridge 27%
Hathorn 21%
Pritt 17%
Martin 5%.
Undecided 30%
Republican Lt. Governor's Primary(this poll was taken before Calhoun got out of the race).
Holt 33%
Calhoun 15%
Banks 12%
Matayo 10%
Undecided 30%
Attorney General - Democrat
McDaniel 38%
Suskie 21%
Herzfeld 13%
Undecided 38%
Treasurer- Democrat
Wingfield 34%
Campbell 21%
Shoffner 20%,
House 11%
Undecided 24%
Secretary of State - Republican Primary
Bright 40%
Lagrone 28%
Undecided 32%
If Jim Holt won't join the Constitution Party, then why should I?
I am not sure that you should. We turn away as many or more than we accept.
Do you have any comment on the topic for this thread?
If its in a poll it must be true. Who did the poll, what was their sampling methodology, and who picked the wierd sample they used?
If this poll were paper I'd know what to do with it. Problem is: I haven't found a way to use electronic toilet paper.
I know for a fact that the poll is manufactured and does not exist. This is an attempt by a Beebe, Woolridge, Mcdaniel supporter to help their guy.
I dont trust any poll. As an educator I was taught how to skew a poll. You ask the questions one way and you report the results another. It is simple. Whoever does the Poll is the facilitator and the results are as they want them to be.
I have a feeling this poll is not correct. It is surprising to see some of these candidates in double digits.
The question is not skewed as you can see it was printed. I suppose you all are bitter because the candidates you love to bash are ahead. Talk about dishing it but unable to take it.
You sound very confident anon 2:05. You sound almost as confident as Rick Calhoun in August.
How do you "know for a fact" that the poll does not exist? Isn't it possible that a poll could be taken in this state of which you have no knowledge?
I thought I would give them a few hours to give any information they might have. Multiple sources give me reason to believe that the poll is legit. Assume for a moment that it is. What does it mean? What are the biggest surprises?
http://www.wairadio.com/PAT9-16-05-02.MP3
Good Interview here by Pritt.
Mark,
Actually, I am starting to think I've been had. I'll be in touch.
Lucas
Mark,
Here is a theory on who is behind the polls, which I now think are frauds...
http://www.roebuckreport.com/B542804165/C146912588/E20050917022637/index.html
I am waiting to see how Mr. Pritt responds.
It appears that in every thread we end up talking about him. We should have learned, from the Howard Dean Candidancy, that setting up a political internet base does not apply to the real political world.
We really cannot predict anything until next spring, when the candidates file for office. Right now all we have is a list of hopefuls.
The poll is so false - its silly. Nobody polls every race including the other parties primaries. That would cost about 60,000 dollars. Who would spend that kind of money to help other candidates. Not even a party would poll the other parties primary contests. Lucas, Mark - I know for a fact that this poll is bogus. Please stop giving it credibility or more people will make up polls and get them posted.
I would tend to believe that the poll is false simply because it is highly unusal to poll both persuasions. As pointed out, it is cost prohibitive and who would want to gather that information? However, I do not think it is too early for a poll if done correctly.
On his blog, Lucas Roebuck states that he now believes this poll is a complete sham. I have always thought this poll was phony.
It was funny to watch the blogsphere in Arkansas completely fall for this poll, without asking any questions of who REALLY did the poll and are these incredible numbers correct? Some bloggers are complete suckers.
The dead give-away was Drew Pritt getting 17% in the Dem primary, and only four points behind Mike Hathorn. Step back and use common sense for a moment.
Hathorn: former State Rep and former Dem nominee for Congress. Hathorn spent hundreds of thousands on TV ads, upping his name id during his race. (I don't support him by the way)
Drew Pritt: unknown "political consultant" with extensive coverage of his writing of hot checks over 5 years and his being arrested multiple times. All of this coverred in Dem-Gaz and Stephens media. That is Pritt's public image for the very few that know him.
The poll wants us to believe Pritt is only 5 points away from being ahead of Hathorn? C'mon!!! Basic political sense has got to prove this to be false.
But most bloggers just fell for it because "sources" said it to be true. Who are the sources? Kurt Sims using fake names and e-mails?
Anyway, you all have been bamboozled by the first sham political poll/tidbit of this election. Next time use more caution and common sense.
More evidence that points to Kurt Sims involvement in this poll scam: On Sims pathetic website arkansaspolitics.com, Sims will not let anyone place posts questioning the poll.
Why would he restrict naysayers? ALL OTHER blogs have let people question the poll. But not Sims's website. That is a dead give-away. It proves to me he has something to hide.
Sims has a reputation of having no ethics. This phony-baloney poll is another example of his complete lack of ethics.
I am willing to bet that 10:21 a.m.'s post is by Dwayne Foster, paid staffer for Mike Hathorn. He attempts to debunk the poll by attacking Pritt and focusing on Hathorn.
My response was emailed to Lucas. I am not the source of the poll. Also, I spoke with too many people yesterday, to know it just wasn't the "liberal" media. With that I think we also have a dangerous precedent being set. Since when did the media become partisan, even for a political ideology?
Lucas committed the same cardinal sin by not being objective.
Since 10:21 takes up my polling numbers, I'll address them first. Yes, I am at 17% and its perfectly plausible.
Stephens Media, Dem-Gazette, and most of the small weeklys have run articles on my candidacy by now, as well as college newspapers. The "Hot Check" story was run by both media outlets. However, Doug Thompson later had to return write a second article exonerating me, as did Pat Lynch.
Why? Because an operative had fed them false or jacked up information about the case.
But if you have the simple sense to google my name, you'll see I recieved sufficient media attention about my Ballot Protection Petition, my Call to Debate, my call for a Raise in the Minimum Wage.
Also, Hathorn is not that well known outside of the 3rd District. Wooldridge is not as well known statewide. None of us candidates are at this point.
Finally, IF this poll is valid and IF I am getting 17%, its easy to see how. Theres 11% self-described liberal Democrats in Arkansas. Add in 6% from either the gay & lesbian or the African-American, or college communities and you get 17%.
I want to close with one last point.
I have become disgusted with what lengths "Anonymous" posters say on blogs.
Whether its Truth blog attacking Kyle Beebe. Whether its the anonymous posters who repeat every shred of gossip about me, or any of the other candidates. Inherently its dangerous and its sinful to say what has been said anonymously.
I respect this blog the most. I don't agree with Terry McDermott because he lied about me and set that pattern by claiming I was in a parade I was not in. But at least he lied under his own name.
I don't agree always with Mark Moore or Harvey Edwards, but they are at least willing to discuss or argue with their names.
I don't respect anonymous attacks. Its a free way to do push polling. You have to ask like with 10:21 a.m.'s post what they fear? If I am not a factor, why spend so much time on blogs attacking me with the same accusations. Why spend so much time attacking me? I ask that of all of you who keep attacking me and saying I am not a factor....I am not even a Christian.
Election Day and Judgement Day will decide that not you, so let it go, because I finally have to let it go.
BTW....to clarify my thought process above at the end meant to say, "saying I am not a Christian," as has been what some claim.
I am a Christian and need grace these days for all this nonsense.
Pritt - You can blather all you want.....There is no way you have 17% of the vote right now. And I don't need a fake poll to tell me that.
The first things I heard about you via the media is that you're running for LG, you're gay and you have written THOUSANDS of dollars in hot checks over the years. I suspect many other voters learned about you the same way. You don't have 17%.
Voters are not fooled by you attempt at spinning. Three candidates for LG have experience in elected office and have never been arrested/detained by various law enforement agengies. (Jonesboro and West VA by your public admission)
Pritt - you are not a credible candidate. Never were, never will be.
Your history of writing THOUSANDS of dollars proves to voters you cannot be trusted. Writing a check to a business is sort of a bond of trust. The check-writer promises that behind that piece of paper there is money in the bank.
That piece of paper(the check) means the check-payer's word is good. You have proved that your word is no good. Doezns of hot checks equally thousands of dollars means you are not a man of honor.
I want it duly noted that Lucas Roebuck apologized on his blog this evening for implicating me. I also want it noted, he changed my statement from what I said.
As for whoever is talking about my hot checks, dude, get a life. I screwed up, wrote a few hundred dollars worth of checks because I couldn't keep my accounts straight. What I did was pay off the fine, which included large court costs, and the court dropped the charges. The reason why is they don't see it as an issue, so why do you?
I am sick and tired of this kindergarten chatter.
NO ONE CARES what is on these blogs. NO ONE, so get over yourselves. You have ruined this and countless blogs because you have baited me and others into fights. And for what? Your own sick pleasure?
Mark Moore, I ask you in all decency, LOCK OUT future anonymous posts. End this business. I apologize for taking the bait. I should have known better.
there is no intent of decency . you are not being baited. and if the site does block certain folks I would hope it is you . The peyton Place of events gets deeper by the day and there are more important real life non fantasy things that we of the CP can talk about.Without being insulted I might add.
Homosexuality is a mental illness. Drew Pritt admits he is a homosexual, therefore he is mentally ill. We should ban all mentally ill people from posting.
The person who hates on this site is you, Drew. You hate the word of God. Your homosexual acts prove it.
Remember a place called Sodom?
God loves but He is not a man that He should lie. We are living in very prophetic times. God's Word gives us guidelines to which we should live by. He hates,sin because sin will kill you. the wages of sin are death. In His mercy He protects us. But if we continue to sin, by our own free will, then we come out from under His grace and mercy, and there is a price to pay for it. Of course you are aware, the word says "a man shall not lay with a man". We are all sinners saved by grace. Idalatry plagues our nation. Our flesh is sometime more the enemy of our soul rather than the devil.When God says sin is sin, an if we grow in His word, then as we grow as the Holy Spirit births revealation knowledge in our heart. As Jesus becomes Lord of our life the anointing, presence of God delivers each of us from whatever would be displeasing to the Father. Whatever He calls sin is sin. There is a price to pay to love God, to enter into His Holy Presence. Remember why Noah build an ark. "In the last days evil shall come forth as in the days of Noah. Once He is truly ones Lord, Savior, Deliver, the love I received overcame the selfish, carnel man in me. It is a daily Choice. But like the old song goes,"Your going to serve somebody..." Jesus said not all would understand. Take Him into your heart of hearts, and then ask the Holy Spirit to guide you into all truth. And watch what happens.
Drew Pritt, please drop the scripture unless you are going to live the scripture!
Drew Pritt, your reputation stinks. Even when you are not playing with the truth, you are often considered suspect. You are not a person of true character. There are people who call themselves Christians who impress me. You are NOT one of them.
Enjoyed a lot!
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Great article! Thanks.
Thanks for interesting article.
Give up Drew Pritt!
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