Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Democratic Runoff Imact

OVERALL: The Democrats have nominated the most secular and liberal ticket that anyone can remember. The Republican ticket is more Christian conservative than usual. Normally, the secular liberals argue that it is OK if they don't share the same Sunday morning values as the electorate, because they are more competent at governing. Competence trumps compatablity. Their problem is that they don't win on that issue either. This is especially true with the office of......

Secretarty of State: Charlie Daniels lost this primary election, even though he was not on the ballot. The feeling we get is that a significant number of normally Democratic voters are fed up with the incompetent way he has conducted this election and some are concerned about corruption issues. Republican Jim LaGrone is more moderate than some folks on the GOP ticket and he should run on competence, not on other issues.

Attorney General: Gunner DeLay wanted the Democrats to nominate Dustin McDaniel and the Democrats gave him his wish. The Democrats elected the least personable of their candidates, and one that has helped sue gun manufacturers. DeLay has a real chance in this race if the GOP fundraising apparatus does what it should.

Lt. Governor: Speaking of giving people what they wanted. The democrats gave Jim Holt a gift of gigantic proportions by passing over Jay Martin and Tim Wooldridge to hand the nomination to Bill Halter. His shady business dealings and liberal policy positions combine the worst stereotypes about both Republicans and Democrats together in one man. He is extremely weak in working a room and shoeleather politics, areas in which the personable Holt will run circles around him. Think the Democratic party will unite behind him? He won overall by 11 percent but he lost in at least (all results are not in yet, thanks Charlie Daniels) 24 counties in various parts of the state. Holt won his THREE WAY race by about the same percent margin, but won in all but three counties. Halter won by winning Pulaski County 71-28 and splitting the rest of them.

If Holt (and the whole GOP) wants to start looking for some swing counties they would do well to look on that list of counties won by Wooldridge. Those are the places where Democrats are uncomforatable with a liberal ticket. This race is also very winnable, and as with the AGs race also depends on the GOP fundraising apparatus doing what it should.

Treasuer: This low-profile office is the only one where the Democrats were not in a position to help the Republican candidate with their choice. The best chance for Chris Morris- the only black person on the ticket for either party- would be to split off some of the black vote. That would be easier to do against Mac Campbell from the Ku Klux Klan capitol of Harrison than it would be against someone that looks like your grandmother.

Governor
: Each candidate runs their own campaign no matter what they start out doing, but this bunch is not one that can help Bebee win. Any attempts they make to latch onto his coat tails will likely turn these folks into anchors for the Bebee campaign. Bebee's strategy is to run a "content free" campaign and hope to win by force of personality and tradition. Asa will constantly be calling him out on policy in an effort to show people that there is a difference on the issues. The group of democrats nominated undermine Bebee's "content free" strategy. Bebee is desperately trying to avoid presenting a target, but the AG SOS and Lt. Gov. candidates on his ticket all have huge issues-based targets. That is just what the Hucthinson campaign wants and needs. As each of their GOP opponents fires on those targets it increases the odds that Bebee will catch some of the crossfire.

14 Comments:

Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Did I mention that the Democrats nominated the openly lesibian Kathy Webb to the legislature?

10:09 AM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great analysis and I agree wholeheartly

10:31 AM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's a great day to be an arkansas republican

11:10 AM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark, I agree with your analysis except for Mike Beebe. He is just as much a liberal as the other guys, he just hides it better. He is pro-choice, pro-lottery, refuses to let the state enforce our country's immigration laws and is pro-cosolidation. It's not his running mates positions that will be weight on his candidacy - IT"S HIS POSITIONS.

11:18 AM, June 14, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

If I did not make that clear let me do so now. Bebee is also way to the left of Arkansans, and yes, he is trying to hide it behind a "cool guy" persona.

You are correct that those are his positions and I did not mean to imply otherwise. My point was that SINCE THEY ARE HIS POSITIONS he WILL BE SMOKED OUT by the rest of the ticket getting hammered on this every day. You have some GOP candidates that know how to get "earned media". This stuff will be in the papers every week because of the other races and that is exactly why Bebee can't continue to execute his "content free" campaign strategy.

The rest of the GOP ticket, Holt especially, is in position to pound the Dems on those issues and the backsplash is going to get all over Bebee. Eventually Bebee will be forced to talk about these things because they are in the paper every day. His strategy to keep hiding will be undercut. I say Holt is in the POSITION to do so. Whether he has the MEANS to do so is another matter. That is going to be a question mark for a while.

12:30 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It sounds like Senator Jim Holt, contrary to all prior smack talk, is in a position to drag UP the Republican ticket.

12:40 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark, thank you for clarifying. I agree completely and do believe that Jim Holt is a net plus for Asa and the ticket as a whole.

3:11 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous DcNwA said...

Who Is Bill Halter?

Excuse this lenghty post, it is based upon facts compiled on Bill Halter.

See this link for information on government sponsored gambling.

http://www.aradvocates.org/search/default.asp?keywords=lottery&x=31&y=3

I ask you to please share this critical information with your friends, family, co-workers and members of your church congregation. United we can protect, promote and defend Christian ethics, morals and values for future generations of Arkansans. Many Arkansans regardless of political affiliation are conservative Christians of all denominations. This election is not about political parties or personalities; it is about defending traditional Christian morals, values and ethics.

Mr. Bill Halter currently serves on the board of four companies: Akamai Technology, WebMethods, Threshold Pharmaceuticals, and Xenogen. Late last month, he resigned from the board of Intermune Corporation amid Securities Exchange Commission and Federal Justice Department investigations into the companies marketing practices.

With the exception of Akamai, Mr. Halter’s business ventures have been financial disasters. During the time that Bill Halter has served on their Boards of Directors these companies have lost over one half billion dollars. Mr. Halter has stated in his television ads that he will use his business experience to help education for the children of Arkansas.

The only profitable company Mr. Halter has been involved with is Akamai, who has some business practices that are a great cause for concern, including business relations that profited from the promotion of internet gambling and teen pornography. Background information about three companies in which Mr. Halter has served on the Board of Directors are detailed below:

Akamai Technologies: Bill Halter joined the Akamai Technologies Board of Directors in August 2001. He has been a member of the Compensation Committee since March 2004. (Akamai Technologies, SEC Form DEF 14A, 04/11/05) Akamai Technologies “enables companies and government agencies to deliver Web content and applications (including ads, video, and other high-bandwidth content).

Gambling and Teen Pornography: Akamai Technologies has long-term business relationships with purveyors of teenage pornography and Internet-based offshore gambling operations. It was “using university networks to help deliver content for Web sites featuring teen pornography and potentially illegal offshore gambling.” In December 2002, “Akamai Technologies…apparently began to stop using server computers it…installed at universities and colleges to help deliver Web content from teenage porn and offshore gambling sites.” In 2002, company spokesman Jeff Young “would not comment on specific servers but reiterated…that Akamai is phasing out its relationships with three gambling sites and with porn sites, both of which he said represent less than 1 percent of Akamai’s annual revenue of more than $100 million.” (Knight Ridder Tribune Business News, 12/07/02, and National Journal’s Technology Daily, 12/04/02)

Cheating Small Investors: Akamai Technologies went public in 1999 at the height of the Internet ventures stock bubble. The company was forced to pay as much as one billion dollars as a result of a legal settlement on charges that they cheated small investors. The agreement, which was reached in June 2003, stipulated that the issuing companies, including Akamai Technologies, would pay nothing if an eventual payout from banks exceeds $1 billion. “In the unlikely event the banks’ payout falls below $1 billion, the companies would have to make up the difference.” (USA TODAY, 06/27/03)

Mr. Halter cashed in stocks to finance his political campaign. The $800,000 sale of Akamai stock in October of 2005 that Halter used to fund his candidacy is detailed below. Other buys and sales for the last two years can be found at: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AKAM.

3-Oct-05

HALTER, WILLIAM A
Director 50,000 Direct Automatic Sale at $16 per share. $800,000

3-Oct-05

HALTER, WILLIAM A
Director 50,000 Direct Option Exercise at $8.13 per share. $406,500

Mr. Halter joined the InterMune Board of Directors in July 2002. He is a member of the Compensation Committee, and has been from July 2002 until his recent resignation. (InterMune, SEC Form DEF 14A, 04/20/05) Federal Investigation: The U.S. Justice Department, in 2004, opened an investigation into the marketing of Actimmune by InterMune. “Actimmune, which has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in sales, is approved only for treatment of two extremely rare childhood diseases. Yet ‘substantially all’ of the sales are for a fatal adult lung disease, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, according to the company’s…regulatory...” filings.

“Several former InterMune employees said in interviews…that the company actively promoted off-label use of Actimmune, which costs patients about $50,000 a year. Sales representatives were told to repeatedly call on lung doctors but to record their visits in the company’s computer system as relating to a different drug, they said. And bonuses were paid to representatives based on Actimmune sales, virtually all of which were for the off-label use, they said. One former sales representative, Joan Gallagher, sued the company in March [2004], saying it had fired her for refusing to go along with what she said were illegal marketing practices. InterMune…denied the allegations in the lawsuit.” (The New York Times, 11/11/04)

Multi-million class action lawsuit - InterMune, in May 2005, also “agreed to hand over $10.4 million to shareholders to settle a 2 year-old class-action lawsuit.

The litigation…charged the company and two former executives with securities fraud. Plaintiffs alleged that InterMune and its past CEO and chief financial officer had falsely projected sales forecasts two years ago for one of its products, Actimmune (interferon gamma-1b).”

“When the Brisbane, Calif.-based company revised its guidance downward, and admitted that it had overstated the number of patients using the drug, its stock lost a third of its value in a single trading day. That prompted the original lawsuit.” (BIOWORLD Today, 05/11/05)

Mr. Halter joined the webMethods Board of Directors in August 2003. He is a member of the Compensation Committee, and has been since August 2003. (webMethods, SEC Form DEF 14A, 07/22/05) Cheating Small Investors webMethods went public in February 2000. It was involved in the same legal settlement as Akamai that was discussed above for cheating small investors.” (USA TODAY, 06/27/03, and www.webmethods.com) Enron Accounting Practice: webMethods, in February 2005, restated “its 2004 financial results by about $5 million because of improper transactions and accounting activities.” According to the company, employees of a “subsidiary, WebMethods K.K., conducted improper licensing transactions, did not record certain expenses, borrowed money without authorization and misled webMethods managers about the unit’s financial results. The Securities and Exchange Commission…launched an informal investigation into the matter, the company said.” (The Washington Post, 02/04/05)

Each corporation in which Mr. Halter has served as a Director has an open policy of providing people of all sexual orientations with full medical benefits and an environment that fosters acceptance and “diversity” among employees.

The information provided is based on indisputable facts. Here, outside of the business dealings of Mr. Halter are the disturbing and unacceptable positions he holds on issues that are very important to people of faith.

Mr. Halter positions on critical issues for children and families:

Pro-Abortion
Pro-Gambling
Pro-Homosexual Marriage
Pro-Consolidation
Pro-Immigration

The center piece of his candidacy has been to mislead Arkansans that a state sponsored and tax payer funded lottery will improve education, while taking money and hurting the poorest and least educated of our citizens. Mr. Halter apparently has been living in California for too many years. His beliefs, values, ethical standards and positions on key issues are totally against those of the hard working people of Arkansas. Search your hearts and share this information with everyone you know. Senator Holt IS mainstream Arkansas and a genuine servant for the people of Arkansas.

3:24 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Conservatives versus liberals. This election will decide once and for whether Arkansas is a conservative or liberal state (regardless of which party is in control of the Legislature at the moment).

3:33 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great post Mark!! You need to be on the editorial page of the biggest paper in the state!

And thanks, DCNWA, for pulling all this info together for us. I can assure you, it will be sent to hundreds of people who need to know!

5:40 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

we have a "deep throat" on Bill Halter. interesting.

8:34 PM, June 14, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Quick Marc, since we're talking about "religious" and "conservative" - what faith does Holt belong to? Baptist? No? Catholic? No? Church of God? No? What faith tradition does he claim? I think your Southern Baptist voters would like to know.

5:21 PM, June 16, 2006  
Anonymous Mark M said...

Holt is an ordained Baptist Minister who is an independent Christian. What does it matter what flavor of Christian he is?

6:30 PM, June 16, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rev. Floyd just wants to be sure you remind him of that fact.

9:38 AM, June 20, 2006  

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