Thursday, July 27, 2006

Republican Undercard Down in KTHV Polls


A spate of polls from KTHV have shown Republicans trailing in several key races. For Attorney General, Dustin McDaniel was up over Gunner DeLay 50-35%. Yesterday they released the poll for 2nd District, which showed Congressman Vic Synder up over Republican Andy Mayberry 58-38%. Tonight they released a poll on the Secretary of State race which showed Incumbant Charlie Daniels leading Jim LaGrone 54-31%. Tomorrow, KTHV is planning to release a much-anticipated poll on the Lt. Governor's race, where Democrat Bill Halter faces Republican Senator Jim Holt. In spite of the above blowouts, I expect that race to be close.

While I have discussed elsewhere on this blog my reasons for thinking the polls have been conducted with an incorrect methodology, this poll seems to only be five points out of whack for the Democrat side. In other words, while these numbers may be somewhat slanted toward the Democrats, the Republicans really are losing these races. Add two and a half to the Republican numbers and take away the same amount from the Democratic numbers to get the numbers I think are correct.

With respect to the Congressional race, barring a miracle, it is over. There is nothing Mayberry can do to win it, Synder has to lose it. Sure his gap is not really bigger than the gap in the other races, but Synder's numbers are solid. These are people who know all about him and are voting for him anyway. Synder has a liberal voting record, but more than 50% of the second district has no problem with that.

The other two races are longshots for the Republicans, but the 50% plus support of the Democrats in those races candidates is not as firm as it is with Synder. Those last 10 points are soft with both men, and both men have things in there record that can be used to peel away their soft support. People don't really know much about McDaniel, and although they know Daniels name, he has made a string of mistakes recently.

So in conclusion, for the GOP: the Governor's race is challenging but winnable with some help from the Green Party. The 2nd District race would require a miracle for a Republican win. The Attorney General's race is a longshot, but not hopeless by any means. The Secretary of State race is a longer shot, except for the fact that Jim LaGrone is a campaign machine. I think he can close with Daniels and make this race competitive by November. Can he win? Daniels will have to help him with another mistake, but he has shown himself to be very likely to do that.

The Lt. Governors race? We won't know until tomorrow. Holt may be the GOP's best bet for a win this year. Remember that it is likely that the poll is slanted five points for the Democrats. If Holt is down by five it is a tie. If he is down by less than five he is probably actually winning. And if he is winning in the poll, then Halter is toast for reasons I will discuss tomorrow night (should that be the case).

7 Comments:

Anonymous Robbie Bullock said...

Mark,
Maybe you and I should just e-mail our thoughts to each other since I am the only person that reads this thing that will argue with you. What do you mean by if he is down by less than 5 he is really ahead? In my humble opinion (extremist jokes aside), it wouldn't matter at this point if Holt were 15 points up because Halter is going to spend some serious money pounding on Holt on the boob tube. You know, whether it is true or not we can debate later, Halter is going to paint Jim Holt as someone who is 5 miles to the right of George Bush. I know that in any other year that might be a positive but people are sick of faith based government and you will see exactly what I mean in November. Even if Holt's message was something that your average Arkansan were interested in, he doesn't have any money to get it out. I hate dirty politics but it is what you have to do to win these days and Halter is going to, pardon the pun, crucify Holt on television this fall. There is nothing you or I or especially Jim Holt can do about that.

3:17 PM, July 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, we already know that Democrats like you despise Christians, so I'm glad we have that already establised and there is no need to debate that any further. For the most part Arkansas is a conservative state, with the exception of the liberal socialist 2nd district. I don't think people will warm up to a candidate that is in step with Howard Dean and cringes at the thought of anything having to do with Christian conservatism. Halter is also pro-gambling and has business ties to the porn industry. Now if you want to talk about radical....

3:56 PM, July 28, 2006  
Anonymous Robbie Bullock said...

I don't despise Christians, anon. What I do despise is hypocrisy.

4:11 PM, July 28, 2006  
Anonymous Mark Moore said...

Robbie,

To some degree we are all either hypocrites or wantonly wicked. It seems to be part of the irony of the human condidtion that those among us who strive for Godliness fail to acheive it, but many are still better for trying than those who have no spirit of gratitude toward their Creator.

Give me a noble hypocrite who is trying and stumbing anyday than someone who has no time for God.

As to the substantive points of your post, I will address them in a fresh post since the LT Gov numbers are out.

Sure we could just email, but this is like a reality TV show! People may like to just watch.

4:20 PM, July 28, 2006  
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