Polling from the Twilight Zone
"Asked if he had any polls of his own, Halter replied, "We don't have any publicly released polls."
Ugh! Do the people of Arkansas really want to listen to Halter's dodge and weave parsing for the next four years? They do if you listen to the Oakleaf poll. That poll showed Halter ahead of Holt 52-27. This is the same poll that showed Beebe up 52-31 over Asa, and whose flawed methodology I deconstructed two posts down.
The same poll showed only 43% of the sample group even knew who Halter was! Holt had 51% name recognition, and 33% of it was positive (15% negative). Halter had 29% positive and 9% negative. 52% total minus 43% name recognition means Halter had 9% more votes than he had name recognition of any kind, positive or negative! Holt had 5% fewer votes than he had positive name recognition. Halter had almost half his votes from people who did NOT have positive name recognition for him, while Holt could not even get all the votes of people who had a positive impression of him.
There is an explanation for these chaotic numbers. The poll has grossly oversampled die-hard democrats who are going to vote for the yellow-dog whether they know the dog's name or not, even if they agree with the Republican on most of the issues.
And they do agree with the Republican on most of the issues. The vast majority of the respondents of this poll agreed with Holt on the biggest controversy of the campaign- they were against giving illegal aliens eligible welfare benefits. Still, they said they prefered Halter. Go figure.
(continued- click WEDNESDAY below and scroll down for rest of article, or if sent straight here just scroll down)
Ugh! Do the people of Arkansas really want to listen to Halter's dodge and weave parsing for the next four years? They do if you listen to the Oakleaf poll. That poll showed Halter ahead of Holt 52-27. This is the same poll that showed Beebe up 52-31 over Asa, and whose flawed methodology I deconstructed two posts down.
The same poll showed only 43% of the sample group even knew who Halter was! Holt had 51% name recognition, and 33% of it was positive (15% negative). Halter had 29% positive and 9% negative. 52% total minus 43% name recognition means Halter had 9% more votes than he had name recognition of any kind, positive or negative! Holt had 5% fewer votes than he had positive name recognition. Halter had almost half his votes from people who did NOT have positive name recognition for him, while Holt could not even get all the votes of people who had a positive impression of him.
There is an explanation for these chaotic numbers. The poll has grossly oversampled die-hard democrats who are going to vote for the yellow-dog whether they know the dog's name or not, even if they agree with the Republican on most of the issues.
And they do agree with the Republican on most of the issues. The vast majority of the respondents of this poll agreed with Holt on the biggest controversy of the campaign- they were against giving illegal aliens eligible welfare benefits. Still, they said they prefered Halter. Go figure.
(continued- click WEDNESDAY below and scroll down for rest of article, or if sent straight here just scroll down)
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Wednesday, August 23, 2006
1 Comments:
Halter's poll shows this race is close. If it had agreed with the Oakleaf poll he would not have answered the way he did. He would not have that guy from Virginia send Arkansas media an attack fax a day making the most outlandish accusations possible against Holt. One falsely alleged Holt was against Social Security, the most recent claimed Holt could not be trusted to protect rural schools. Everybody who is anybody on the side of rural schools, Ron Crawford, Debbie Pelley, Jimmy Cunningham, LaVina Grandon, will tell you that Holt is the best defender of rural schools in the Arkansas Senate. None better.
I don't know how much more dishonest Halter's fax man can get than he has already been. Perhaps tomorrows fax from Virginia will claim that father-of-nine Holt is impotent. The one the day after tomorrow might claim that Holt wants to blot out the Sun and poison Earth's oceans. When you are fearmongering, you have to keep racheting up the outrageousness of the accusations. This is only August and the Halter campaign is already off the scale in wild accusations.
A man's campaign is a direct reflection of the kind of person that he is. Every voter in Arkanas should know that. They better decide if they want to listen to these kinds of outlandish smear jobs- I mean you can't turn reality on its head any more than to say Holt is against Social Security and untrustworthy as a supporter of rural schools- for the next for years.
Vote Halter and you will get a contstant stream of dishonest attack faxes from out of state for anyone who might be in Halter's way. That list might include Mark Pryor, according to the rumour mill.
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