Biggest Poll Yet From Roby Brock
Roby Brock (host of Business Talk) has announced the results of the biggest poll yet on the top three races on the ballot. Over 1000 likely voters were interviewed and the methodology for this one was transparent and rock solid (except it somewhat under-represents the 3rd district). This is in contrast to some recent polls that used a smaller sample size and questionable or undefined polling methods (note: SURVEY USA has cleared up many of the questions I had about their methods).
The result is that there is not much good news for Republicans, but here are the results...
Ballot Question 1 (College Bonds that have been roundly critisized on this board)
Yes: 31%
No : 40%
Undecided: 29%
Governor
Hutchinson: 34%
Beebe : 48%
Lendall : 1%
Bryan : 0%
Undecided : 17%
Lt. Governor
Halter : 44%
Holt : 40%
Undecided: 16% THIS RACE IS WITHIN THE 3.1% margin of error
Attorney General
McDaniel : 51%
DeLay : 37%
Undecided : 12%
The result is that there is not much good news for Republicans, but here are the results...
Ballot Question 1 (College Bonds that have been roundly critisized on this board)
Yes: 31%
No : 40%
Undecided: 29%
Governor
Hutchinson: 34%
Beebe : 48%
Lendall : 1%
Bryan : 0%
Undecided : 17%
Lt. Governor
Halter : 44%
Holt : 40%
Undecided: 16% THIS RACE IS WITHIN THE 3.1% margin of error
Attorney General
McDaniel : 51%
DeLay : 37%
Undecided : 12%
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Monday, September 04, 2006
14 Comments:
Holt is polling higher than Asa. I wonder what exactly that means. Surely, Asa doesn't have as many negatives as Holt has had foisted upon him by the mainstream media. That is not even to mention the ugly primary that Holt just went through.
Halter should be higher than that just because he has a "D" after his name. If I weren't reluctant to sell Holt short as I have been inclined to do in the past, I would just say that Bebee is just a much stronger candidate than Halter. Objectively, it appears that Holt is instead the strongest candidate on the Republican ticket. I think that it is clear that he can get at least 40%, but can he get 51%? And will that extra 11% require that he compromise his positions alittle? If it did, would he do it? What areas could he soften on and still keep his base? Even doing so would probably not reward him with more votes, so I hope he doesn't.
This is a problem with the political system (perhaps life in general). It forces pragmatism to obtain a majority, but fails to represent the single largest block voters overall because together they are still a minority. Third parties don't even solve the problem, it only seems to make it worse. Take Europe for example.
Ultimately we are going to have to win more hearts and minds OUTSIDE of the political system so that this "strong minority" can become a majority. That seems like an impossible task in today's culture.
I guess it is true, the American system is the worst form of government in the world except for all the others.
You want him to soften his positions? Why, so he can be like the other guys that are getting their clocks cleaned? You don't get it, he does not compromise, that is why he is doing better. He actaully takes positions that are strong. You may not always like what he says, but at least he is telling you something.
Pragmatism is not helping the other guys. Escape from the box you have put your mind in. Heck yes he can win. they need to back him with $$$$$.
Beebe is a stronger candidate than Halter, but is he really a good candidate? He has run a bumbling campaign. He has never had opposition before and it shows. I'd say neither of them are good candidates, but there is an anti-Bush mood out there in swing voter land. Holt is the one that most has his own independent ID and has a rep. for being willing to buck his party. Sort of a maverick.
Some people are asking if it is over in the Governor's and AG races. Heck no.
The Republican strategy is to look for rural swing voters. Those are going to tend to be the last ones to get the facts. Also, the GOP has a far superior information database to target swing voters. The Dem ticket really is secular and liberal and more time to get those facts out will only help the GOP.
What we don't know yet is how much of each person's support is deep support that will not be swayed. Even Beebe's total support is not 50%+1+margin of error (nor is McDaniels). Until he gets there it is ridiculous to talk about the race being over.
I tell you the GOP should use their database to make up a file of every voter in the 2nd district and Washington county who votes liberal and is supportive of the environment and gay rights issues. Then they should find a way to get that info to the Lendall campaign so the guy can do a targeted mailout. Some of that huge undecided vote is hesitating between Lendall and Beebe. If they go Lendall, Hutchinson can still win it.
The AG race is more in the hands of the media. Neither candidate has the money to get their own message out with their own money.
I'm not buying that Asa is that far down in the polls when both Asa and Beebe's own polls show this race as being neck and neck.
Clinton is coming in to town to put another notch in his belt: He is after Asa Hutchinson, just as he has conscientiously and deliberately gone after all of the other impeachment managers. Managed to unseat a Republican in a House race in California, among others, so far.
BEWARE BIG BILL when he comes to town, cause he don't fool around.
Big Bill fools around plenty. Hillary can't trust him as far as she can kick his fat glutes.
As for the poll, the one that showed it close was taken a while back, before Beebe dropped a cool million into TV ads. I do think the 3rd was slightly under represented, but let's not indulge ourselves in fantasy. The poll may lean democratic four or five points, but Hutchinson and DeLay are behind by double digits or close to it.
Holt 40%
DeLay 37%
Hutchinson 34%
Look like Asa is dragging down the ticket. Maybe now his staff will eat their words for dissing Holt.
Mr. Toast,
A two party system allows the voters to directly decide on and form the majority "coalition" BEFORE they vote on it. In a multi-party system, you elect the politicians you want, then the politicians go to their secret rooms and put together their majority coalition under a cloak of secrecy that is not evaluated by the voters.
Additionally, the power structure then becomes a conglomerate of special interest politicians that sacrifice all other principles to get "their share" of the public trough. If you think that ultimate power structure becomes "fractured" to the benefit of Constitutional principals rather than special interests, then you underestimate the extent of human depravity and the unifying power corporate money.
Enough of an explanation?
Wake up America!
C'mon,
It is time to get past all that "drag down the ticket stuff". Asa's people were strictly neutral in that primary.
Asa is not the drag on the ticket. Bush is. Bush may be a bigger drag on Asa than on Holt because it is well known how independent Holt is and that he has clashed with the administration on numerous issues. It is just a tough year to be a Republican.
Whether we have a multi party or two party system is irrelevant if the quality and character of the candidates (and the nation) do not improve.
A system will always fail if those who administer it are not honorable.
William Penn (I believe it was) thought that he could draft Pennsylvania's constitution so that it would always work. In other words he focused on the system (which, is important by all means)and attempted to make the laws of the state impeccable.
Meanwhile drafters of other state's constitutions (my history is a little fuzzy but I believe it was Robert Locke) said that the focus should be on the character of the people in government because if the men who administer the laws are good then the laws cannot be bad but if the men who administer the laws are bad the laws cannot be good (paraphrasing).
So quibbling about the form, while somewhat useful, is not the true issue which will improve our republic. It is the quality and character of the politicians.
If we had enough honorable men to populate the Republican party, for instance, then we could return to our Constitutional principles which have slipped away due to less than honorable men (not because the system was itself flawed, necessarily, because all systems are flawed if the men who administer them are dishonorable).
Carry on smartly then Mr. Toast. Since your wisdom so far surpasses all the generations of Americans including that of the Founding Fathers and the writers of the Constitution that you hold dear, then I would not dare to disagree with you. My apologies for daring to disagree. Where is it that you would have me to report for my immediate termination?
No, and I referenced in my posting that the form of government is indeed important. But I believe that if the character of the men in office is bad then no system will work to preserve our God given liberties.
Therefore, I believe that the true solution is not changing the form but rather the makeup of the character of the men in office.
If we have the same caliber of representatives that we have now, no matter the form of government, we will be in the same shape.
How do we work to improve the character of the nation. That is a broad topic that there is not a singular or easy answer to. Morevoer it is beyond my expertise. But certainly with prayer and with enough honest people working toward that goal, anything is possible.
You are both right, you just have different priorities. You are focusing on flaws in men, and Toast is focusing on flaws in the system. There are lots of flaws in both to go around.
In fact, it may be flaws in the system that keep OUT better men, so the two would work hand in hand. Improving the system in ways that improve the men in it.
We need a thread on this subject. Toast, why not post an ariticle about it?
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