Tuesday, September 12, 2006

New Zogby Poll Shows Asa Closing and Within Margin of Error!

The same Zogby poll that last month has Mike Beebee up by 8.8% last month shows him up by only 3.3% in the poll concluded yesterday. That is well within the polls + or - 4% margin of error.

The poll can be found here. You will have to click on the GUBINATORIAL tab at the top and then scroll over Arkansas to get the result.

The poll shows Hutchinson with 43.3% and Mike Beebe with 46.6%. Zogby and Rasmussun polls both show this race within the margin of error. This blog has been noted in its criticism of the methodology used in other polls that have shown Hutchinson far behind. I told readers all along not to let those other polls psyche them out, but it is hard to follow that advice even for me without other polls to justify your hypothesis. Zogby and Rasmussen are two of the most trusted names in polling. Some of the important details of Zogby's methodology remain hidden. When you seek out answers about their methodology, they mostly talk about their track record, which has been outstanding.

Some of you are going to mention that I thought the Roby Brock poll had sound methodology and it showed Hutchinson down by 14. That is true, but it came right after Beebe spent one million dollars on TV ads within the same window that the last Zogby poll had Asa down by almost nine. They really were not that far apart. Since then news events and the routine of life have swamped the effects of those ads. What this seems to say is that the Beebe ads had little lasting effect. In fact according to Zogby's tracking data, this race is closer than at any time since March.

7 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Zogby lost a lot of credibility with me in the 04 election. His polls turned out to be VERY inaccurate. He is an avowed liberal and it has affected his methodology.

Rasmussen on the other hand has been very consistent.

Maybe Zogby is trying to make amends by polling fairly in 06.

6:19 AM, September 12, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is very good news. Of course the media won't report this like they did the "bert and ernie" Oakleaf poll - I wonder why?

6:48 AM, September 12, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Zogby does not have a dog in this fight, like he did in 04.

7:28 AM, September 12, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Rasmussen also released a poll today that showed it Beebe 49, Hutchinson 38. The poll may have been released today, but it was conducted a week ago, Sept 6th.

Beebe's ad buys were fresh on the mind at that time, and Hutchinson's had not yet played out. Beebe also got good press from the Clinton visit at that time (a Bush visit for Hutchinson does not have a proportionate positive effect).

I think the Rasmussen poll was close but that we have seen a narrowing of the race in the last few days. Asa's ads are kicking in, and the only story on Beebe's end are the Nick Wilson ties. As of right now, the race is within five points, within the margin of error, though Beebe is ahead.

To win, Hutchinson will have to get 2/3rds of the undecided vote and / or turn some of Beebe's softer supporters.

12:09 PM, September 12, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I couldn't care less how close the election is. Asa will win and that's all that matters.

7:09 PM, September 12, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you have any fact, numbers, trends, or logic to support your bald assertion?

4:57 AM, September 13, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FWIW, Zogby's political leanings have nothing to do with the inaccuracies of his polling methods; if they did, his polls would be more accurate.

4:49 AM, October 08, 2006  

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