Thursday, September 28, 2006

SURVEY USA POLL RELEASED

Right on the heels of the Zogby poll that shows the Gubinatorial race close- 45.7 to 43 in favor of Attorney General Mike Beebe, Survey USA comes out with a poll that shows it 55-40 in favor of Mike Beebe. So is the race a virtual dead heat, or is Beebe running away with it?

I know the Survey USA people have been real nice about coming on here and defending their poll methodology, but the plain fact is either they are wrong or Zogby is wrong. It's them. If Beebe gets over 55% on election night, I'll eat a bug. On You-Tube.

Their summary of races is captioned as follows....

"
For Governor, Democrat Mike Beebe beats Republican Asa Hutchinson, 55% to 40%. Since a SurveyUSA KTHV-TV poll 4 weeks ago, Beebe is unchanged and Hutchinson has gained 2 points. Beebe's lead has decreased from 17 to 15 points....... For Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Bill Halter beats Republican Jim Holt, 48% to 42%. 4 weeks ago, Halter led by 9; today he leads by 6. ........ For Secretary of State, incumbent Democrat Charlie Daniels beats Republican Jim Lagrone, 59% to 34%. 4 weeks ago, Daniels led by 24, now leads by 25. For Attorney General, Democrat Dustin McDaniel beats Republican Gunner DeLay 53% to 36%. 4 weeks ago, McDaniel led by 18, now leads by 17."

For more commentary, click THURSDAY below and scroll down

23 Comments:

Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

If the Zogby poll on the Governor's race is correct, then this poll swings Democrat by about a dozen points.

That is a big if, but I believe it for two reasons. One, Zogby has a better reputation than Survey USA, and two, Bill Halter just spent $34,000 on polling and he is acting like a man who knows he is behind, not six ahead. His last attack FAX was so laughable that I predict that nobody right of the Arkansas Times Looney Bin will even run it. Halter would release his poll results if they showed him up on Holt. He hasn't. Conclusion: The Zogby poll is more accurate and you can add a dozen points to the GOP side.

That said, the poll is still not good for the GOP. Holt has closed on Halter by 3 points since the last Survey USA poll, and Asa has closed by two, but there is little to no movement on the other races. They are not closing the gap down ticket and I am having a hard time seeing a way for that gap to close.

McDaniel is giving DeLay some ammo, but so far that has not translated to poll movement. On the Secretary of State's race, I have no idea what it is going to take to get a slumbering public to realize that Charlie Daniels is not getting the job done.

The bottom line is that the GOP has a good shot at Lt. Governor, a fair shot at Governor, and a long shot down the ticket.

7:10 PM, September 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Charlie Daniels has a cool name. That is why he will not lose to a Republican. This is the sad truth.

Did Asa pick up the 2 points Bebee lost, or did one or both of them go to Lendall and Bryant?

7:35 PM, September 28, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

As near as I can tell from both polls, Beebe lost a point, Hutchinson may have lost a third of a point, and the rest came from the undecided vote.

7:41 PM, September 28, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Hutchinson gained his points from the undecided vote, if that is not just "noise".

7:41 PM, September 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

7:35 - But Jim Lagrone has been working very hard getting his message out there and when it comes to who will best protect the right of everyone to vote, people will choose Jim over Charlie. That is, people who realize what and who Charlie really is and can actually see the facts. Those who refuse to look at the fact will vote for Charlie because they like the office of Secretary of State being as corrupt as it is.

9:34 PM, September 28, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The sad truth is that half of the people who will vote for Charlie won't have a clue what the SoS does. They certainly won't know how bad Charlie has fouled up while in office.

10:10 PM, September 28, 2006  
Blogger Wayne said...

I think the GOP has gone too far into the religious fanatic camp to make much headway in the next election. Too many of the GOP candidates are attempting to win by playing to the right-to-lifers, the anti-alcohol/anti-smoking/anti-gambling groups, the "I go to church every time they open the door" league and the "let's take away someones rights" groups.
There are lots of voters out there who are getting fed up with the loss of their personal freedoms and their right to make choices and I believe they will eventually get off their duffs and make a trip to the polls, even if it is just to vote against a candidate who is trying to make this state/country into a religious paradise. A Christian one that is. If we were in the Middle East, it would be Islamic and if you read the news or watch TV, you can get a pretty good idea how living under those conditions will be.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for some limits on society, lets just keep it to the basic moral guidelines of the Ten Commandments or other well thought out set of rules.
As long as your persuit of happiness doesn't infringe on someone else's rights, you should be allowed to live as you see fit. There are always limits to be imposed, they just don't have to be the ones espoused by the loudest religious nutcase with a microphone or pulpit. We already have more than enough laws that were forced on the populace by religious groups, it's time to strike some of them from the books, might make the "code" more manageable.

12:17 AM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lagrone at 39%? I think that's still higher than Janet Huckabee was, and this is an obvious democrat biased poll. Regardless of what happens I think people will be suprised on how Lagrone ends up...

12:39 AM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lagrone is the better man. His camp should keep fighting to the end. You never know when Charlie is going to pass out drunk on the capitol steps. There is even a chance that the media would report it.

6:01 AM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wayne, the GOP has done nothing to implement any policy that the religious right wants. What they are doing is not biblical government.

And you think the 10 commandments are OK? Me too. Thou shall not commit murder takes care of abortion. Thou shall not steal and thou shall not covet they neighbors stuff takes care of the welfare state, and thou shall not commit adultery takes care of Bill Clinton.

The attempt to draw a parallell between a Christian controlled society- like America had through much of its history, and an Islamic one, is completely misleading. Those are two different faiths and a nation built on each of them will follow two completely different paths. History has proven this.

God sent His son to die for you, Allah demands you send your son to die for him.

6:20 AM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know about the accuracy of the particular numbers, but I think the poll is right on two counts. Jim Holt will lead the ticket, and Jim Legrone will never recover from the Big Lie he told.

7:55 AM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Big Lie"? What a joke! Lagrone said his son couldn't cast an absentee ballot from Iraq when his son was actually in Mississippi waiting to deploy to Iraq.

You call that a big lie? He even admitted he misspoke. The overall Truth stands: soldiers were denied the right to vote because of Charlie Daniels' incompetence.

11:23 AM, September 29, 2006  
Blogger Wayne said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

12:07 PM, September 29, 2006  
Blogger Wayne said...

I'm not so sure that the GOP has not worked to implement changes to laws that are biased by fanatical religious views. It is hard to write legislation without using your own upbringing and beliefs as guidelines and some politicians look to others for what to do adn say. It is when the religious zealots are threatening a politician with impeachment or lack of support and that same politician makes a speech expressing their support and agreement with those same fanatics to keep their name off the list of politicians those groups will not support at the polls that I begin to worry. Fear of not being elected or re-elected has caused politicians to support legislation that is not in keeping with the citizen’s right to pursue happiness and to be able to choose how their life will be lived. I am glad they haven’t tried to implement a Biblical government, we as a nation can’t afford it nor do we want it. It’s been proven time after time that when religion is in control, there are only the poor and the super rich, with a lot of suffering for everyone with a mind of their own.

From your standpoint on abortion and murder, you must not be taking the pill or your wife doesn’t either. Any method of birth control that uses chemicals of any type to prevent pregnancy would have to be outlawed and use of it will have to carry the same penalty as murder. You must believe that life begins at conception, not at viability. I am not so limited in my understanding of the natural life cycle of mammals and how things work. Even if I held to your definition, I still could not force myself to impose my beliefs on others, it’s not the American way to force others to bow to your personal beliefs when their beliefs are different from your own, that’s how the Muslims run their countries. We all know how they feel about killing; if you don’t share their beliefs, it’s not a problem! Off with your head! I object to politicians having to answer questions about their personal view of Roe vs. Wade and if it should be overturned or how they are going to work toward restricting the use of abortion. It is not a question they should even be forced to make a public declaration about since it is a medical matter and if they aren’t the one who has to live with the decision, they don’t have the right to force others into situations that affect the rest of their lives. It is a personal decision and government should stay out of it. Stupid as it is to get in that predicament, it is even dumber to make someone carry to term and then abandon them and I don’t support long term welfare either.

As with any well thought out set of rules to live by, the 10 commandments work quite well IF everyone follows them. Unfortunately, most activists and politicians fail to grasp the true meaning of many of them. They may not commit murder with their own hands; they just cause it by setting up situations that put people in despair with nowhere and no one to turn to.

It is quite easy to draw a parallel between the two societies and I see nothing misleading about it. The methods are different, the outcome the same. Force, violence and brain washing are methods used in Islamic countries. Coercion, threats of public exposure and bribery are methods used in this one. Sure the paths followed are different, the end result is the same: the citizens lose their right to choose how they will live their lives and live in fear of those who think they have the right to force their way of life on others.

From your constant referral to Biblical reference, I must assume you are either a “man of the cloth” or a member of the fanatical religious portion of our society. Either way, since I don’t use a crutch to make my decisions about how to view the world and our political scene, I must take all you say with a “grain of salt” and believe that you are speaking with the conviction of someone who thinks they are right because they think they are right, not because their thoughts have been proven to any degree beyond that governed by religious bias. That opinion of mine might not win me many friends and you may think I’m totally wrong and Godless and all the other things a person with religious bias guiding their every move think about people who don’t carry their religion chip on their shoulder, but it is my opinion and I’m not afraid to publish it.

You are probably peeved that I called the Bible a crutch and that is fine, I have been around the world and across much of this country and have found that those who cannot get away from scripture to make their point are usually biased in a way that precludes true and honest expression of their inner-most wants and desires. If you always have to refer back to a source for your inspiration, where is the free will and thought? I think the Bible is an excellent book; unfortunately, it was composed by man during a time when certain groups had their message to spread and ulterior motives to have it written in a certain manner. Sure, they and those who need to believe that God guided the writings that were assembled into the popular version of the printed text. What about all the other writings that are locked away and unpublished? Don’t these portions of that time period need to be researched by all? I don’t believe that only the chosen few should be allowed to make up my mind about what something says, especially when the text can be interpreted many ways depending on frame of mind and other influences.

Do you truly want to force your will on others? Do you really want our government to become religiously affiliated? Do you really want everyone to be just like you? Our founding fathers sure thought it was a bad idea and they were pretty wise in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for moral behavior, just remember, my moral behavior might be a little different from yours. As long as it doesn’t affect yours, what business is it of yours to regulate it?

The more politicians in office that have no mind of their own and vote only the way a select group of religious loudmouths want, the more rights we as citizens of this state and country will be forced to surrender. I do not want to take your rights and I sure don’t want you to take mine. Failure of the masses to vote will be the downfall of our society and freedom. That and not being informed of what is going on.

Take the “no prayer in school” case. Nowhere in the law does it say you cannot pray at school, all it says is that you cannot mandate or force the student body to pray to your God, in the manner you proclaim. Any student can say a prayer anytime they desire, as long as they do not disrupt the class or try to force others to pray with them. Common courtesy will allow a few moments for the prayer, it’s when those praying try to take control of the situation and force the issue that problems occur or when they insist that they be allowed to do it loudly, in public and with everyone paying homage to their display that it becomes a legal matter. Did you read the article in the Dem/Gaz about the kid from Arkansas who started the whole issue? It gave me more insight to the process that I hadn’t had before, made my stand on it stronger to boot!

History has proven lots of things, too bad it’s being re-written and repeated all the time.

12:12 PM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Lagrone is a born liar. If he knew anything about God's Word, he would know that it is a calling, not a career that can be tossed aside for Ceasar's work.
He's lied to God about being a pastor, and not he's lying to get elected to a worldly office.
Hypocrital Christians like him and Jim Holt should spending more time studying God's Word instead of quoting it out of context.

12:13 PM, September 29, 2006  
Blogger Wayne said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

12:13 PM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Legrone does not appear to know that absentee applications are sent to the hometown county clerk and that absentee ballots are mailed out by the county clerks. The Clark County Clerk mailed junior's ballot to Mississippi, to whence it was supposed to be mailed.

But, let's still tell everyone that the boy was in Iraq and was denied his vote. And let's blame Charlie Daniels.

12:27 PM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whatever happened to Charlie Daniels' "the buck stops here" statement? The Secretary of State's main role is to administrate. A GOOD administrator makes sure everyone is getting their jobs done. In Daniels' case, that is not accomplished by holding up the absentee ballots for a lawsuit to keep Green Party candidates off the ballot as was the case in the 2004 election of which we're speaking.

1:09 PM, September 29, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Wayne, mind if I delete a couple of your lengthy triple posts?

2:14 PM, September 29, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

12:13

And if you cared anything about God's word you would not libel two of the most honest men in Arkansas politics under the cover of an anonymous tag. It shows a lack of courage.

3:35 PM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Jim Lagrone is a born liar. If he knew anything about God's Word, he would know that it is a calling, not a career that can be tossed aside for Ceasar's work.
He's lied to God about being a pastor, and not he's lying to get elected to a worldly office.
Hypocrital Christians like him and Jim Holt should spending more time studying God's Word instead of quoting it out of context."

I know for a fact that Jim Lagrone is NOT a born liar, but can tell without a doubt from your one post that you are a born idiot. You also are obviously working for Charlie "Jack" Daniels, or are a member of his family, which as we all know is the same thing. Things must be getting pretty desperate at both the Halter AND Daniels campaigns if they have to resort to baseless accusations of their respective opponents, Jim Holt and Jim Lagrone.

3:36 PM, September 29, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Wayne,

You seem to believe that the only rational chain of reasoning is one that begins "God is irrelevant" as its premise. I would suggest that you are just as biased as one who begins with the premise that "God is relevant", and if there is a God then that premise is more rational to boot.

You seem to be found of smearing those whose faith informs their politics as "fanatical", you though are just as fanatical in your secularism.

All laws are legislated morality. When you make it against the law to murder someone, you are imposing your morality. Some might think it immoral to make laws that protect the weak from the strong. So we are left with the question, not, "should we impose morality" but rather "whose morality should we impose"? You are trying to rig the rules of the debate so that we are not allowed to win no matter how many people we persuade. I would not call that liberty. It makes you the oppressor, even as you cry victim.

And you better check your biology book again. Unles the "pill" is RU486 birth control does not work the way you think it does.

8:21 PM, September 29, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Mark,

I strongly disagree that Zogby is better then SurveyUSA. SurveyUSA is usually one of the better polls, while Zogby releases very few that are obtained using reliable methods.

As you may be aware, there are various ways to "stuff" most Zogby polls and there are people who successfully do this all the time. Despite Zogby's efforts to filter their results, they're limited to improving them by some factor that's considerably less then desireable. If you don't believe me, then try stuffing a Zogby polling questionaire during it's next polling cycle and see the results for yourself. You should find that a 5-10 point swing isn't unreasonable.

In addition, Zogby relies heavily on weighting to correct for numerous inadequacies in it's methods, which is less then desireable when it comes to accuracy. Zogby does a decent job with this, considering that it begins with a significant disadvantage, but it's asking too much of Zogby to expect a respectful level of accuracy from it's flawed methods.

You're probably right in that Beebee won't get over 55%, but there are other reasons to account for this that your not considering (such as the fact that frontrunners usually do lose some ground.) Having said that, I'll be shocked if Beebe doesn't win, because the numbers have been too consistent in his favor.

4:43 AM, October 08, 2006  

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