Monday, October 02, 2006

New Roby Brock Poll Up

Roby Brock, host of "Business Talk" has a new poll up. It is not good news for Republicans. Is the poll accurate? Thoughts on that in a bit. First the Results...


Beebe 51%
Hutchinson 40%
Lendall 2%
Bryan 2%
UND 5%

Lt. Governor:

Halter 45%
Holt 41%
UND 14%

Attorney General

McDaniel 53%
DeLay 32%

(Continued- Click MONDAY below and scroll down )


Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

The poll weights all congressional districts evenly. I still think that the 3rd will have more voters in the actual election.

This poll shows Asa behind even in the third district. Asa had a 35 point lead in the 3rd CD in this same poll last month. There is simply no way this is correct. This is an "outlier" result.

Holt has a comfortable lead in the third and a slight lead in the 2nd- but there is an uncomfortably large undecided vote in the third CD for this race.

The "Voter Motivation Index" needs to be commented on. The phone poll asks them to push a button to describe how likely they are to vote. The Republicans scored as more highly motivated than either Democrats or Independents. I wonder if people who said they were not likely to vote got included in the poll? In other words, someone who picked "3" for their motivation and picked Beebe got a vote and someone who picked "9" and voted Hutcvhinson got a vote. Both counted equally in the poll, but one is more likely to show up on election day.

The poll did show that Hutchinson gained three points from last time in spite of the puzzling 3rd district results, and even if the numbers are wrong, the trend could still be right.

Bryan and Lendall showed good gains as well. Lendall of course needs only 3% to assure the Greens of ballot access in 08, so for them if they get 3% it is a minor victory.

When you factor in the true weights of the districts, and the higher motivation of the Republican voter, I think it translates into a slight lead for Holt. Asa Hutchinson is behind, but not eleven points behind. My guess is that he is four or five points behind.

I think the third district numbers in this poll are an outlier. Asa is not really behind Beebe in this part of the state. My biggest concern is that the conservatives are having a hard time breaking out of the low 40's.

7:49 AM

7:54 AM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mark, why the relativley large undecided numbers in the Lite Gov's race as compared to the other state wide races? Is Halter just too slimy for the average Arkansas Dem?

7:54 AM, October 02, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

He may be, but they don't know that yet. They don't know anything about him. I am sure he is torn between going after Holt or using what little money he (Halter) has left to paint a false picture of himself (one that is flattering).

Unfortunately, we can't count on the media to tell people what a fraud he is in business and "running social security". He will pretend he is on Clinton's coat tails. Clinton wants nothing to do with the guy.

8:24 AM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two obversations. (1)It is good that Asa is no longer the drag on the ticket, having been replaced by DeLay, who never had a chance to begin with. (2) It is no longer amusing to try to parse the problems with EVERY poll that has been released, because they can't all be wrong and not a single one has shown Asa leading.

11:43 AM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No they don't but they do all show him gaining. This poll has him gaining despite him losing the 3rd district, which is ridiculous. I actually feel very good about Asa and Jim Holt both winning.

12:10 PM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Most of the undecided will fall to Halter I'm afraid.

1:34 PM, October 02, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

"It is no longer amusing to try to parse the problems with EVERY poll that has been released, because they can't all be wrong ........"

Yes they can be. That is what I am trying to tell you. If you conduct two polls with flawed methodologies, they are going to be wrong. If you conduct ten with flawed methodologies they will still be wrong.

Don't lose your nerve, if you are an Asa/Holt supporter. Don't let them pysche you. Ten bogus polls are just as bogus as two. Ten polls based on the assumption that the 4th district will have just as many voters as the third are wrong ten times in a row. They are wrong because they are based on assumptions that are wrong.

Zogby won't reveal his methodology in detail, but his poll shows the Governor's race to be a three point race for the last two polls. I wish they had polled the Lt. Govs race because that one would show Holt leading.

Look, Holt was at 32% in the polls days before the election when he got 44%. You think he is really at 41% against Halter? You really think Asa is losing the third this month when the same poll last month showed him 35 points ahead in the 3rd.

Fear not, and keep fighting.

2:29 PM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Asa is seriously behind... Seriously terribly and tragically behind, by like, ummmm, 50 points. Yeah, yeah, 50 points. Therefore it is safe from me to vote for Rod Bryan and make a statement. ;) ;)

5:18 PM, October 02, 2006  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Yes! WAAAY behind. It is like way safe for all you libs to "make a statement" with your vote. Vote Bryan or, if you have an affinity for cranial hair or the Green Party, Lendall.

5:41 PM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

He lost when he entered the election.

4:30 PM, October 03, 2006  

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