Wednesday, October 03, 2007

3rd Quarter Republican Presidential Fundraising

Not all numbers are in yet, specifically the critical "cash on hand", but the amounts raised are in. Numbers are in millions of dollars...

Mitt Romney (10):
********** (plus he loaned himself at least five million more)
Rudy Guiliani(10):
********** (down 40%, dismissed his fund raiser)
Fred Thompson (8):
********
Ron Paul (5):
***** (up 114% from last quarter)
John McCain (5):
*****
Mike Huckabee (1)
*
Others- inconsequential or not reported

For commentary, click WEDNESDAY below and scroll down, or if sent straight here, just scroll down.

13 Comments:

Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Third quarter fund raising is often lower than 2nd quarter because candidates have already tapped out most of their big-money donors. Thompson's relatively late start meant he still had many of his big donors with some room left to give. His total raised for the campaign still lags far behind his main rivals, some of whom already have some infrastructure in place.

Romney raised 21% less than last time. He is writing himself a check to make up the difference. He already has great infrastructure in place in the early states.

Guiliani and McCain were down 40% each. Guiliani has replaced his chief fund-raiser. Guiliani is taking a gamble that he can let Romney win in Iowa and New Hampshire and still come back and win by dominating in big states on Super Tuesday. That might be a poor bet- the publicity would give the Romney campaign a great boost and cause party folks anxious about the lack of a clear nominee to rally behind Mitt.

McCain is making a bit of a come-back. Will it be enough? I doubt it, but he might win enough delegates that he will be a possibility in a brokered convention. If Rudy and Thompson falter the establishment will push hard for McCain IF the war goes well.

Paul is the most interesting of the bunch. His numbers INCREASED a massive 141% over last quarter. Also, his decentralized campaign has a lot of support that is "off the books", such as people making home-made signs. Thus the real dollars spent for Paul are much higher than the reported figure, they are just not spent BY the Paul campaign.

The establishment is pulling up the castle draw-bridges all over the nation in order to shut out Paul by changing the Republican primaries from "open" to "closed" primaries. This will exclude independents who are used to voting in GOP primaries in those states. Such voters are more open to Paul than are most party regulars.

Like McCain, Paul's best shot is a brokered convention, but with opposite changes in the political landscape. That is to say, if it becomes increasingly clear that Iraq is a loser for the GOP then Paul is in better position to win in convention. If Iraq turns around, McCain is in better position (and unlike Paul will have the support of the establishment rather than it's intractable opposition).

Mike Huckabee was the best of the rest with one million dollars raised. That is enough to keep him in for a while longer but not enough to seriously contend for the nomination. Is he running for Vice-President? Like the others, a brokered convention benefits him, especially if he can snag a few delegates here and there (mostly here!).

7:04 PM, October 03, 2007  
Anonymous Rick said...

Mark,
I must say I am suprised that Paul raised 5 Million in the last quarter but the challenge will be turning money into votes.
Giuliani is still the frontrunner and the man to beat. Romneys lead in N.H. has dropped to 24% - 21% over Rudy, according to a new Zogby poll, and Rudy is just now starting to spend money there. If Romney can't hold both Iowa and N.H. he is in trouble.
69% of evangelical Protestants still support Rudy. If that number remains high he will win running away.

5:16 AM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guarantee that nowhere near 69% of evangelicals will not be supporting Rudy come election time.

If you want to guarantee a loss to Hillary Clinton, nominate the Rudy.

Leave it to the GOP to elect the otherwise unelectable: Hillary!

5:57 AM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Rick said...

Anon,
I don't buy that any of the candidates the GOP is running can beat Hillary. In fact I think Rudy is the only one that can, and he may not.
I predict over 50% of evangelicals will go with Rudy. Rudy's numbers are very high. He is the first and second choice of most voters. The nay sayers have been saying he is to liberal to win and yet 3 months out of the primaries Rudy is still leading. Go figure.

10:21 AM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rick, you know this game by now. No one's paying attention at this point. Polls are just a bit more than meaningless.

The pictures of Rudy in pantyhose and women's underwear alone will sink him. He is finished before he started, as well as he should be.

We don't need two New Yorkers running for president, and we certainly don't need perverts.

I do believe there are others running who could beat Hillary!, but not the so-called top tier Republicans.

10:42 AM, October 04, 2007  
Blogger Hercules Mulligan said...

Hello everyone.

I was thrilled to hear about the formation of the Christian Constitutional Society! I have written a bit extensively on this subject on my two blogs, The Foundation Forum, and the Alexander Hamilton Patriot. It is wonderful to see this society finally around, and it is wonderful to see that its goals, stands on issues, etc., are in perfect unison with my own.

We seem to be a minority in the Christian/conservative group, and I would like to support the Society in any way I can.

But would you mind satisfying my curiosity? What is the story of how the CCS ACTUALLY got established? Who did it, why did they, and exactly when did the CCS go into function?

Thanks for all you are doing, and God bless you and your efforts.

12:32 PM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Rick said...

Anon,
I suppose when refering to Rudy wearing pantyhose you are talking about a skit he did with Donald Trump that was a fundraiser.
I do realize most people aren't paying much attention so polls don't mean much, but we are getting late in the game. In 4 months we will know the nominee.
Who do you believe could win thats not in the first tier?

3:50 PM, October 04, 2007  
Blogger Curious George said...

Rick,

As if that were the only time he has dressed up in drag. There are pictures on the net of at least three other times and reports of many more. Then there is the fact that he shacked up with two gay lovers after his last divorce.

Giuliani is unelectable even if some kind of insanity craving for power hits the GOP and he wins the nomination.

I don't believe the numbers of over 50% "Evangelical Protestants" supporting Giuliani. 69% is ridiculous. Who is trying to sell that load of manure?

5:10 PM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous c.b. said...

On Guiliani;
Lets not forget that someone will have pictures of him marching in that gay pride rally, too.

Fielding a socially conservative candidate is the the only way the GOP has been able to carry the south. Many southerners still cling to the myth that the Dems are better for the economy, but they can't stomach the liberal social positions.
If you throw in a socially liberal Republican like Guiliani, that will give them the perfect excuse to vote for another Clinton...."for the economy"!!

Not to mention the hard line values voters that will either stay home or go third party.

Rick,
You are going to have to face it, he can't pick up enough liberal/northern states to make up for losing his base. Rudy is the surest route to "Madam President".

5:43 PM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Rick said...

Curious George,
The poll you think is manure is an ABC/WaPO poll that came out today. The overwhelming majority of voters I have seen polled have Rudy as their number 1 or number 2 pick. Can that last? Only time will tell.
The one thing that changes this election more so than any other in the past 40 years is the war on terror. The reason 69% of evangelical protestants support Rudy is his leadership in this area.

c.b.,
I wish I knew of a social conservative that could win this thing. I would switch and vote for that person in a second. But my dislike for the Clinton's, and Dems in general, will push me to vote for someone like Rudy if he is the best shot Repubs have.

5:57 PM, October 04, 2007  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Herc,

Check your Hamilton blog.

6:30 PM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rick, I'm not sure what poll you're citing, but check this Rasmussen Report.

Jules is DOA. Who's your second?

7:44 PM, October 04, 2007  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fred actually raised 12.5 million

6:33 AM, October 10, 2007  

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