Electability

Rudy Guiliani. "Electablity" can be a very ill-defined and transient property.
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Six months ago, the corporate media pounded us with mention of "America's Mayor". Conservatives were under all sorts of pressure to throw their principals to the wind and vote for Rudy Guiliani. Now, his campaign is in serious trouble.

"Electability" is a term that is getting thrown around quite a bit. What it ought to mean is "the ability to put together a coalition that can win elections". What it has come to mean from liberal Republicans is a liberal Republican. What it has come to mean from too many conservative Republicans is "someone I feel comfortable with on style".

Liberal Republicans like McCain and Guiliani CAN attract some crossover voters. The problem is that they would lose conservative voters. Their potential crossover appeal is great, but their potential coalition-building appeal is not, so their potential electability is lowered.

Some people though, use "electability" as a code phrase for "someone whose style I like". Those who like Ken-doll looks and great hair might say Mitt Romney is "electable" while bald and wrinkled Fred Thompson is "unelectable". Older southern conservatives love Thompson's gravel-voiced persona and insist that Thompson is the most "electable". Folks in Sunday School Class at First Baptist look at each other and agree that Mike Huckabee is the most electable, since the others have personal histories or even religious beliefs that they are not comfortable with.

In each of the above examples, the word "electable" is mis-used to mean someone whose style that people in their demographic personally feel comfortable with, not someone who is in a position to build a winning coalition. And again, it is the latter definition that is the correct one.

Armed with this understanding, I maintain that the only thing that keeps Ron Paul from being the most "electable" is a very stubborn section of the Republican Base for whom style trumps substance. They may agree with Paul on virtually every issue, but they don't like his style. Unfortunately, it is some of the things that these voters don't like about him that give him tremendous crossover appeal. Ron Paul is the only guy in the race that can get 18-34 year olds to vote Republican 15 years early. What I mean is, many of them may vote GOP after they turn 40, but Paul can get them to vote for a GOP candidate (him) right now, at age 25.

This was brought home by observing a Fred Thompson supporter trying to win over a young Paul supporter at a recent county committee meeting. "Fred Thompson is the only conservative in the race with the personal traits of a strong leader" the elder said to the younger. This of course, was an admission that Paul was a strong conservative. It was not Paul's substance that the elder objected to, but his style. "But we are Americans" said the younger, "We don't need to be led, we need to be free".