Thursday, October 30, 2008

Odds for Upset: 8192: 1

I don't support either the socialist or the fascist in this election, (I am voting for an unknown named Chuck Baldwin) but many people have wanted to know my take on the presidential race.

My take is that Obama is ahead, but McCain has a chance. His odds are dim, but he is not a million-to-one longshot. Instead, the odds against McCain/Palin are 8192/1, give or take a few.

How do I get that? Well, to win, McCain needs to win 10 states that are close enough to be in the "toss up" category. In other words, he needs to win 10 coin tosses in a row. The odds of that are 2048 to one. In addition, he must pull off the upset in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the state to watch on election night, along with Florida. Those are two east coast bell-weather states that will be announcing early. If McCain wins both of them, he really has a chance. If he loses one of them, his odds go up to that million-to-one or more category.

McCain's odds in Pennsylvania may be a lot better than the socialist media gives him credit for. I rate his chances as 1 in 4. You see, as an anonymous associate of mine pointed out, poll samples are taken by ratios. They are factoring in a "surge" of Democratic registrations in PA. Because of that, most polls are sampling a larger than usual number of Democrats. The problem is a little thing called "Operation Chaos". Rush Limbaugh told supporters in the late primary states to register as Democrats and vote Hillary. PA is one of those states where this effect was more pronounced, and so the "surge" of Democrat registrations may largely have been conservatives looking to play the spoiler. This can skew polling data.

This might also be a state where the "Bradly Effect" is strong. They tell the pollsters that they are going to vote Obama or they are undecided because they have taken heat for being "racist".

Both Obama and McCain act like PA is still in play. That ought to tell you something. Don't listen to the media, follow the money.

The odds are good that we will be looking at President-elect Obama come next Tuesday night. The odds are good, but not unbeatable.

4 Comments:

Anonymous paul said...

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4:40 PM, October 31, 2008  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Stop spamming me dude.

6:07 PM, October 31, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Moore,

This stinks of foul play:
http://www.nwanews.com/bcdr/News/67338/

The mayor didn't want a tax increase on the ballot during the presidential election in Benton County because he knows it would fail. So, how to solve that problem? "Lose it in the mail" so that they can bring it back at a later time when they can skew turnout more in their favor.

I really surprised that you hadn't caught that. It's like you just don't give a "darn" anymore.

10:54 PM, October 31, 2008  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

OK, I am busted. I saw the story but did not add 2 n 2.

5:26 AM, November 01, 2008  

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