Early Straw Poll Results
From the Republican Party Straw Poll. 700 were in attendance.
Gilbert Baker 35%
Curtis Coleman 33%
Conrad Reynolds 23%
Tom Cox 4%
Kim Hendren 2%
Fred Ramey 2%
Buddy Rogers 1%
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Those numbers don't need much analysis. They mostly speak for themselves. Here are a few bullet points....
1) There is no front runner in this race. It is a divided field and no one stands out.
2) There is a clear break between the top three and the rest, except that Hendren is strong in NWA. If the vote were held in Benton County right now I would say Baker and Hendren would trade spots. The event was held in Central Arkansas. I guess I am saying that the GOP is not only divided among the top three vote getters here, but that the party is also divided regionally.
3) Tom Cox is running as the Tea Party candidate, but IMO he has less Tea Party support than Conrad Reynolds does.
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Saturday, December 05, 2009
3 Comments:
Refresh my memory on the percent of Republican votes that actually come out of NW Arkansas. Also, if a strong candidate came out of NW Arkansas, lets say someone like Jim Holt, in your opinion what does this do to Baker? I see most candidates forced out, making it a 2 man race, probably between Holt & Baker. Holt has the inside tract since he is known statewide. Baker is only known by party insiders. Whats your take Mark?
Benton County alone has 30% of the state wide total. Washington county adds another 10-15 percent of that. So 40% at minimum just from those two counties. The rest of the state is basically the other half.
But Holt is not a regional candidate in the GOP primary. He is a dominate candidate state wide. He won 149 of 150 counties in the two state wide primary races he competed in.
Baker's favorables are still in the single digits. You have to be in the top 15% of knowing who the players are to know who Baker is.
If Holt raises any money at all, he is the nominee.
I agree Mark.
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