Poll Position
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Arkansas News commissioned a poll (Mason-Dixon)of the U.S. Senate Race. It shows Senator Blanche Lincoln still popular enough among Democrats to likely be safe from an intra-party challenge, but faring poorly against top Republicans. This poll gives Lincoln somewhat higher numbers than recent Rasmussen polling, which showed her trailing all possible challengers, but the results are still not good news for the Senator. This is especially true since undecideds tend to break against the incumbent.
This is the first poll we have seen that polls Lincoln against former state Senator Jim Holt, who challenged Lincoln in 2004. Holt has the widest margin against Lincoln. The results breakdown like this....
Holt 43, Lincoln 37
Baker 43, Lincoln 39
Coleman 39, Lincoln 40
Reynolds 38, Lincoln 41
Cox 38, Lincoln 41
Hendren 38, Lincoln 43
Margin of error +/- 4.
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Thursday, January 21, 2010
4 Comments:
The graph on the story is wrong. It has Holt and Blanche's numbers reversed. A source working with the Holt campaign woke up the Mason-Dixon folks to confirm. Now if Stephens media can get their graph fixed before the papers come out.....
It's interesting to note that Boozman's announcement to Tolbert that he is considering jumping in the contest came within minutes of this poll release. It looks like the "in crowd" is dumping Gilbert Baker and moving over to Boozman as their "Stop Jim Holt" candidate.
How will that affect this race having another establishment candidate in the race(Boozman)?
Archibald Forbes
If I had to guess what they were thinking, they are moving away from Baker and toward one of their guys who is geographically in a better position to take some votes from Holt.
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