POW Net Radio Talks About the State of the Primary Races
Analysis of the horse race aspects of government is not my favorite part of the field, but that does not mean that I am not good at it! Plus, its what a lot of you would rather listen to instead of my policy wonk stuff. Here is the 30 minute audio where I talk about the Senate primaries and the 3rd District Congressional primary.
posted by Mark Moore (Moderator) at Wednesday, April 28, 2010
9 Comments:
Great show. The Senate race is over and Boozeman is going to be the nominee. Question is can he beat Lincoln or Halter in the General?
I don't see how anyone could have listened to that whole show and gotten that out of it.
Just posting my thoughts on the race as you did on the show, that's all.
Rick, care to share your reasoning on a victorious Boozman candidacy?
Well, I happen to think that Lincoln will be the nominee. Any of the Republicans in the race can beat her. Boozman will actually have the hardest time beating her of the bunch. He can't use the bailout issue against her, like any of the others could. He can't use growth of government spending against her, like any of the others can. He can use "Washington Insider" against her, as any of the others except maybe Baker can. He is the only one of the bunch who is just as inarticulate as Lincoln.
Basically, John Boozman can still beat her, but he is the stupidest possible choice that Republicans can make. He takes so many issues off the table that any of the others would have.
My point on the program was that the insider vote is split two ways, while the outsider vote is split six. And if the two insiders are in the run-off, Boozman will win it on geography and other factors.
The only solution is for the supporters of the outsiders to vote strategically. Jim Holt may not be their first choice, but he is the closest one to getting a run-off spot. Supporters of those candidates need to realize that their guy is just splitting the outsider vote and vote for Holt just to get an outsider in the run-off, an outsider who negates Boozman's geographic advantage.
Oh, wait, you were talking to Rick. I have no idea if it is Rick C. or someone else.
Hendren may be an outsider but he is also the last choice as far being a fiscal conservative based on his voting record in small stone.
His first answer is typically one of constitutional confusion.
He does not figure out the right answer until one of two things have already happened:
1) he's opened his mouth or
2) he's already voted the wrong way.
I like Kim. He's a very entertaining in his speaking. Great Guy. But he's kind of a Maverick wannabe.
RTB
I think that all supporters of non establishment candidates will have to pull their votes to Holt, the most logical choice, in order to beat Boozeman. Otherwise, being from NW AR where 40% of Repub votes in the state are cast, edge Boozeman. If Holt can push this into a runoff he has a good chance of being the nominee.
My wife and I have done our part to help Holt by mailing our Absentee Ballot yesterday.
Mark, this is Rick C.
Thanks for the insight
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