New KOS poll - Senate Race Still Headed for Holt/Boozman Run-Off

With just five days before the Arkansas primary elections, the new May 13 Daily KOS poll still indicates that the eight man race for the Republican nomination may well be coming down to a two-man race — John Boozman and Jim Holt.

The Daily KOS poll released yesterday, May 13, still shows no candidate winning the majority necessary to avoid a run-off election. Not only is Jim Holt 2nd in the poll but also has moved up two percentage points since the last poll and moved up from six percentage points to seven percentage points above Senator Gilbert Baker. And the front runner, Congress John Boozman, polled two percentage points lower than in the last Mason Dixon poll conducted May 6 by Stephens Media. (See links to the poll at end of this Press Release)

This Daily KOS poll includes much more information than the Mason Dixon poll did. It ranks all the candidates favorable and unfavorable ratings by all demographic groups. In today's poll Jim Holt's favorable rating is very close to that of Congressman Boozman's. Among likely Republican primary voters Boozman's favorable rating is 72% and his unfavorable rating is 15%. Jim Holt's favorable rating is 67% and unfavorable 11%.

Boozman's unfavorable rating is actually 4 percentage points higher than Holt's among likely Republican primary voters. That is quite astounding considering all the positive media coverage Boozman has received and the hundreds of TV ads he has run, and the lack of coverage and/or negative coverage of Jim Holt's race and with no TV ads. And Holt is on the way up according to the poll and has the momentum on the campaign trail. Holt has run a few radio ads this week and will be running more in the next few days.

Not only is Holt seven percentage points above Senator Baker's in this poll, but his favorable ratings are also six percentage points better than Baker's among likely Republican primary voters. And Baker's unfavorable ratings are 6 percentage points higher than Holt's. Again, this is astounding considering Baker has raised a million dollars and has been running TV ads for some time now.

"The grass roots are truly amazing," Jim Holt said, "We are so very grateful for all the work our supporters have done and continue to do. And if elected, we will work for them and their interests just as they are working for us in this campaign."

"We're pleased that we are second in the poll, Holt continued. "We realize it is an uphill battle, but our supporters are fired up! We hope and pray the supporters of the other six candidates will rally behind us when we make the run-off. Once people see our voting record of less government control and spending, we'll win by a landslide! It's not even close"

Link story on most recent Daily KOS poll: May 13

Link to data on the KOS poll

Link to the Mason Dixon poll May 6, poll