Sunday, March 20, 2016

Coming House of Cards Moves in Presidential Race?

I know, with every fiber of my being, that the establishment interests which have funded and controlled the Republican party for decades will not simply let Donald Trump or Ted Cruz be the next President just because a bunch of plebeians voted to give him their party's nomination. The primaries and caucuses are only there to get people emotionally invested in one or the other private political clubs and the comforting illusion that this process is self-government.

Listen to this eye-opening interview with the GOP national committeeman from North Dakota. He is close enough to the top to see what is the realities are, but not high enough to know that he is never supposed to admit them to the public. Those delegates represent the party, not the voters. After the first ballot, the delegates can vote for anyone they want, even someone with few or no delegates.

So what might they do in order to subvert the very process which they themselves set up and sold to you as the pathway to nominate someone for President? Here are some things they did to stop Ron Paul in 2012. Some of these tactics are merely sneaky and unethical. Others are violent and would be considered crimes if the thugs they hired had not had badges. Read the link for details. The difference this time is that unlike the kind and gentle Paul, Donald Trump and his supporters would respond to such tactics with brutish tactics of their own. This means they are going to have to try and steal delegates from Trump in more subtle ways. One consequence of this is that they might not be able to stop him from reaching the magic number of 1237 delegates.

The Establishment has a perplexing problem because the only other candidate with a reasonable number of delegates, Ted Cruz, is probably not in their club either. He and his wife have played footsie with them but I doubt they are in. To be in the club, when the chips are down you have to be willing to do the wrong thing for the right people. Cruz is probably trying to work the system for his own purpose, not theirs. Lot's of people have tried that, few as successfully as Cruz. The vast majority get co-opted or discouraged along the way.

If the establishment manages to stop Trump from winning on the first ballot and a brokered convention produces a winner who is not Trump or Cruz, the Republican party could go the way of the Whigs who they replaced. It would have to be a surprise move anyway. If Trump and Cruz get wind of any such plot, they could still always put aside their differences and form an alliance.

The establishment needs Ted Cruz right now, even if they don't love him. They need him to help stop Trump. They need him to continue to fool their voters into believing that who they vote for in the primaries has some relevancy to who is actually going to be the nominee. Cruz needs to be on the top of any Trump-stopping ticket, even in the case of a brokered convention.

The House of Cards play here is for the establishment to help Cruz on the condition that he pick an establishment guy, the Jeb Bush or a Jeb Bush, to be his Vice Presidential choice. Then the "unity" ticket goes forward with the Cruz-backing grassroots fired up and feeling better about the establishment of "their" party being big enough to take a back-seat.

Then they wait for Hillary, who is in the club too, to be the "bad guy". When her team files a lawsuit challenging the eligibility of Ted Cruz for President, it will be heard pronto. Right now such suits are being thrown out on procedural grounds, not on the merits of the case against his eligibility. See the brief filed by Einer Elhauge if you want a devastating critique of Cruz's argument that he is eligible. The suit associated with the brief was thrown out on procedural grounds, but the suit team Hillary files won't be. As a candidate in the race, she will have standing.

So Cruz is tossed off the ballot and the JEB! style VP pick becomes the top of the ticket. This time, with the adoring approval of the GOP masses because by-golly, Jeb-style tried to help their boy Cruz win, they were just foiled by that evil Hillary. The establishment's problem is solved. They have their pick no matter which one wins (as usual) and most of the base feels like their party tried to represent them, they were just stopped by those evil Democrats. It only has to be plausible enough for people who want to believe it to believe it.

But suppose they can't swing it? Suppose the brand is ruined? I would expect the same funding sources would quickly drum up a new fake brand to pretend to represent limited-government conservative voters.  Just like they realized that a real conservative media would rise up if they did not jump out in front and fund a fake one (FOX), they will try to jump out in front and form a fake new party. The media will be ablaze with the news. It will seem to spring up from nowhere, ready to suck up the political energy of the gullible conservatives.

The establishment is ruthless, cunning, and very well funded. But they can be beaten. The answer is decentralization. Whatever the fake new organization they try to build looks like, it will be a national organization. It will have a headquarters in DC. If conservatives instead start decentralized political networks in every state run by the grassroots instead of a big national label run by the same people who led us to this disaster then they can have real political representation, probably for the first time in their lives. They may not be able to elect a President set up like that, but they can elect everyone else, making it far, far less important who the President might be. Here is what the establishment is and why a centralized political party is inherently the wrong tool to use to limit and decentralize government.


Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

I think they are gonna try to get Trump to pick an establishment guy for his VP too. Maybe even Tom Cotton. If he wins, will he get JFK'd?

7:47 AM, March 21, 2016  
Blogger Galactic Paradox said...

They don't really have a reason to do any of this since Hillary is most likely going to win anyway. Maybe they could give the nom to Cruz but it won't change anything and he won't get sued by Hillary and if on some off chance he did I would be shocked and amazed if the courts sided with her let alone even heard the case. I would also bet against "establishment" picks for VP from either Trump or Cruz but I guess no matter the choice the VP will have to play the straight man to either one of those loons.

9:35 AM, March 21, 2016  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

I am amazed you should say so since an average of the four big polls at Real Clear Politics show a spread of only 1 point between Cruz and Hillary. The election is hardly a forgone conclusion. Hillary's supporters have been all over the suits that have been filed- including the guy who wrote the brief I linked to in this article. I know she would prefer her supporters do her dirty work for her, but it not like she is above it if she can't get some minor party candidate to do it. As to the courts hearing it, they have consistently thrown these suits out on the basis that the plaintiffs are not being harmed by Cruz's purported ineligibility because they are not candidates. So they would hear the case, based on their own previous statements. And if you will read the brief I linked to, if they do so the Cruz campaign is almost certainly toast. As for VP picks, if one does not pick the other then yes, I would take the bet with you.

10:55 AM, March 22, 2016  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

If Trump wins it looks like the plan is to recruit a couple of fakers on the right to run as third party in order to split the vote enough for a Hillary! win. That is neocons that are planning this.

12:04 PM, March 22, 2016  
Blogger Galactic Paradox said...

Hillary doesn't need their help and they know it. A third party run as an alternative to Trump would hurt her more than help her and they know it.

8:58 AM, March 24, 2016  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

Even Democrats hate Hillary. She needs their help just to stay out of prison. But I love it that rule 40, designed to block Ron Paul's name from being placed in nomination, can make it so that only Trump or Cruz are the GOP nominees. KARMA. God does not like it when people are unfair to Ron Paul!

8:08 PM, April 05, 2016  

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