Friday, May 14, 2010

WOW! New Poll Shows Womack and Maddox Headed For Run Off in 3rd!

Many of you know that for the last few days I have been trying to tease some poll results for the 3rd District GOP Congressional race. I theorized that the lack of news meant unflattering results for the perceived favorites in the race. Finally, tonight (and if they really wanted this out badly, they probably would have had a proper press release instead of leaking it to a blogger on Friday evening) I was leaked something that has as its biggest shocker something that is multi-source verified....

Steve Womack 21%
Kurt Maddox 15%
Cecile Bledsoe 12%
Bernie Skoch 7%
Gunner DeLay 7%
Mike Moore 5%
Doug Matayo 3%
Steve Lowery 3%

Kurt Madddox has emerged as the clear conservative frontrunner in the race for Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District.

In what could be the political upset of the decade in western Arkansas, the self-described "outsider" Maddox has gained sustained momentum for the past two weeks and could be difficult to stop. It would shock the establishment. Kurt Maddox does not have their permission to win this race!

The 2nd place mantle had previously gone to State Sen. Cecille Bledsoe but she shares much of the same Rogers base with Mayor Steve Womack. The insider polling indicates Womack has solidified a strong base in the largest Benton County city -- which left a clear opening for a solid conservative to move into second place.

Conservative activists had worried that many of the "true-believing conservatives" would divide the base and allow two moderate Republicans to appear in the runoff. Maddox's unexpectedly strong grassroots campaign put those concerns to rest.

In recent weeks, the eight different campaigns went remarkably quiet, making it obvious that shifts were underway. The perceived frontrunners are obviously unhappy with the trends.

Arkansas Watch, however, has sources from two different campaigns verifying that the runoff will likely be between Womack and Maddox. Womack operatives are reportedly telling it to insiders as well.

The Maddox campaign has been somewhat unconventional. He has refused to accept special interests dollars, and asked his opponents to join him in what he called "the Razorback Pledge." Along with refusing special interest dollars, the "Razorback Pledge" also includes a self-imposed term-limit pledge and a pledge to give half his congressional pay to charities in the 3rd district.

In the interests of full disclosure, I did a limited amount of consulting work for the Maddox campaign early in the race. Nothing recently.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow! you just lost all your credibility! Not going to happen.

8:13 PM, May 14, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That may be the funniest blog post I've ever seen!

8:22 PM, May 14, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In typically Mark fashion, you kix something you think is kool-aide and wonder why we won't drink it. People don't like horse urine. Stick to pumping Jim Holt, at least you sound more convincing.

8:25 PM, May 14, 2010  
Blogger Mark Moore (Moderator) said...

We will see in just four days. Heck, we can see in just one day. Will Womack's camp deny it and give contradictory numbers?

Just one of you folks from the peanut gallery care to put your real name on your taunts? See that way you can come back later and lay claim to be the one who told me ahead of time I was oh-so wrong?


9:37 PM, May 14, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No I just like busting your balls from the comfort of the unknown. It makes you try harder and that provides food for thought. Clint Reed (not my real name) He actually is my hero Sold out Conrad and made a butt load of Money steering a ship full speed into an iceberg while whistling we are in the money. Ha!

10:40 PM, May 14, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I see someone finaly jerked a knot in Breanne Davis and got her to stop bashing Womack's on her twitter account. Oh to be so young and stupid again.

2:55 PM, May 15, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Did these polls hit a nerve with the insiders?

Do I hear some chicklet gnashing?

Did the insiders pull their proverbial heads out of the sand to realize they are not in Kansas any more?

This is 2010 Sherlock Insider Holmes.

Go inhale some cheese to go with your whine!

Go Hogs!

Sid McMath

6:35 PM, May 16, 2010  
Anonymous Jason Tolbert said...

That is certain interesting. Does not fit any of the polls I have seen. Who did the poll? Can you send me the full report with crosstabs and questions asked?

6:42 PM, May 16, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jason, call Womack's camp. I believe they have these #'s

7:12 PM, May 16, 2010  
Anonymous Mark said...

Any poll more than 2 weeks old is not going to show this surge. I understand that the last day of polling was done the day before I put this up....

and other to say that it is from a trusted source who ought to know better than to set me up, I can't give any more details than that.

4:46 AM, May 17, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny Guy!!

10:52 AM, May 17, 2010  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The laughing will be done tomorrow night, one way or the other!

11:57 AM, May 17, 2010  

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