Odds for Upset: 8192: 1
My take is that Obama is ahead, but McCain has a chance. His odds are dim, but he is not a million-to-one longshot. Instead, the odds against McCain/Palin are 8192/1, give or take a few.
How do I get that? Well, to win, McCain needs to win 10 states that are close enough to be in the "toss up" category. In other words, he needs to win 10 coin tosses in a row. The odds of that are 2048 to one. In addition, he must pull off the upset in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the state to watch on election night, along with Florida. Those are two east coast bell-weather states that will be announcing early. If McCain wins both of them, he really has a chance. If he loses one of them, his odds go up to that million-to-one or more category.
McCain's odds in Pennsylvania may be a lot better than the socialist media gives him credit for. I rate his chances as 1 in 4. You see, as an anonymous associate of mine pointed out, poll samples are taken by ratios. They are factoring in a "surge" of Democratic registrations in PA. Because of that, most polls are sampling a larger than usual number of Democrats. The problem is a little thing called "Operation Chaos". Rush Limbaugh told supporters in the late primary states to register as Democrats and vote Hillary. PA is one of those states where this effect was more pronounced, and so the "surge" of Democrat registrations may largely have been conservatives looking to play the spoiler. This can skew polling data.
This might also be a state where the "Bradly Effect" is strong. They tell the pollsters that they are going to vote Obama or they are undecided because they have taken heat for being "racist".
Both Obama and McCain act like PA is still in play. That ought to tell you something. Don't listen to the media, follow the money.
The odds are good that we will be looking at President-elect Obama come next Tuesday night. The odds are good, but not unbeatable.